关键词: 集体林权制度改革, 林地流转意愿, 影响因素, logistic回归模型

Abstract: This article uses the sampling data of 409 forest farmer households in 12 counties (cities) of Liaoning Province after the collective forests ownership reform,utilizes Two Classification Logistic Regression Model for the peasant household forest land management right circulation desire,establishes the respective model of peasant household inflow,outflow and synthestic circulation and quantitatively analyses the major influencing factors and level of the occurrence of peasant household forest land circulation management ritghe desire.The result indicates that householder’s age and forest age both have remarkable impacts on the aspiration of peasant household forest land inflow and outflow desire.The types of forest,degree of difficulty in forest land circulation and whether to know the forest land circulation service center have the remarkable influence on the inflow aspiration of the peasant households;the years of householder’s education,number of laborers of the household,whether to have the forestry income,degree of difficulty in fund obtaining,non-farming and forestry income and the land transfer deadline have remarkable influence on the outflow aspiration of the peasant households.And the degree of such influences are also analyzed.

Key words: collective forest tenure reform, forest land circulation desire, influencing factor, logistic regression model