Abstract:

The implementation of the Three-North(i.e.,Northeast China,North China and Northwest China)Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 has yielded significant results,and the dynamic evaluation of the implementation effect of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program at this stage facilitates precise measurement of future objectives and tasks focus.By applying dynamic weighting and normal cloud models,we constructed a multi-level indicator system to comprehensively evaluate the implementation effect of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020,and selected the grey system prediction model to accurately predict the first-level effect response index from 2024 to 2028.The results show that:1)The response indexes for project objectives,benefits,and sustainability show a steady upward trend,of which the largest increase is the index of project benefits,and the smallest increase is the index of project objectives.2)The overall evaluation of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 is positive,which indicates that the project's comprehensive benefits are significant in this period.3)The comprehensive evaluation and prediction results for the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2024 to 2028 show a consistent upward trend in both project goal and sustainability indices.Focusing the evaluation on project objectives,benefits,and sustainability,the index system for evaluating the implementation effect of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 has been enhanced and refined.

Key words: The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program, implementation effect, cloud model, comprehensive evaluation