Prediction and Simulation of the Potential Demand for Forest Carbon Sequestration in Seven Pilot Carbon Markets

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2019.04.002

Abstract

Abstract:

The article takes 7 pilot cities and provinces in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Hubei,Chongqing,Guangdong,Shenzhen as the case area,and uses the directional distance function to obtain the carbon marginal abatement cost of the industrial sector in each case area,and adopts the cloud model.The simulation method will make a scientific prediction on the forest carbon sequestration demand potential of the pilot provinces and cities in the next 10 years,and then carry out policy simulation research on how to improve the forest carbon sequestration demand of the pilot provinces and cities in the next 10 years.The results show that there are great differences in the carbon marginal abatement costs of the industrial industries in the seven pilot provinces and cities in China,such as the enterprise's super-discharge penalty rate,industrial incentive policies,self-technology emission reduction subsidies,and the intensity of corporate carbon emission quotas.The four policy factors have different effects on the demand potential of forest carbon sequestration in the emission reduction industry.Based on the combined impact calculation and analysis of different policy factors,the article concludes with relevant policy recommendations on how to improve the total demand for forest carbon sequestrations in the next seven pilot provinces and cities.

Key words: forest carbon sequestration, demand potential, cloud model, prediction, simulation

CLC Number:

F326.27
X196

TONG Huiqin, LONG Fei, QI Huibo, ZHANG Zhe. Prediction and Simulation of the Potential Demand for Forest Carbon Sequestration in Seven Pilot Carbon Markets[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2019, (4): 10-17.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 11

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年份	上海市	天津市	北京市	重庆市	深圳市	广东省	湖北省	平均
2007	10524.19	5927.27	5182.05	6412.97	3501.43	28326.59	19010.22	11269.24
2008	10804.93	6333.83	4691.44	7097.36	3334.69	29675.80	18975.07	11559.02
2009	10548.47	6842.90	4617.33	7731.04	2645.66	31379.70	19903.09	11952.60
2010	11573.21	8251.94	4940.22	5959.69	3089.58	34088.14	21826.25	12818.43
2011	11563.34	9396.66	4496.32	6701.02	2674.96	35106.58	21864.58	13114.78
2012	11274.27	10086.90	4392.10	6780.57	2069.58	35528.54	23322.06	13350.57
2013	11598.16	10850.14	4320.31	7149.78	2011.79	36056.84	25689.17	13953.74
2014	11165.84	11132.68	3615.86	7456.50	2069.21	35228.56	26569.09	13891.11
2015	11224.11	10948.23	3443.89	7641.68	1956.31	35330.00	26687.60	13890.26
2016	11079.26	10670.24	3380.20	7672.29	2046.30	35160.54	26932.44	13848.75
平均	11135.58	9044.08	4307.97	7060.29	2539.95	33588.13	23077.96	12964.85

年份	上海市	天津市	北京市	重庆市	深圳市	广东省	湖北省	平均
2007	12.1266	298.2347	0.0303	0.0303	3.3578	0.0305	0.2625	44.8675
2008	12.1981	0.0302	0.0303	31.2746	0.0303	0.0301	10.6420	7.7479
2009	297.2407	0.0301	1.6769	37.1273	297.0405	295.1107	295.6412	174.8382
2010	1.2844	3.6358	1.7345	296.7244	10.0978	2.0745	5.1546	45.8151
2011	0.0303	7.3340	1.1189	22.6413	2.0706	0.1060	15.6471	6.9926
2012	0.7611	2.0133	296.6006	10.1897	9.7704	14.3344	9.7360	49.0579
2013	0.0303	1.9285	1.3673	56.3000	17.5981	0.5652	0.4971	11.1838
2014	0.3556	0.7392	0.0303	11.7376	0.6710	0.0301	0.0302	1.9420
2015	0.0303	0.0302	0.9178	20.6593	1.6555	5.5515	0.1403	4.1407
2016	0.0390	2.7143	0.0303	1.5029	0.0303	0.7512	0.0302	0.7283
平均	32.4096	31.6690	30.3537	48.8187	34.2322	31.8584	33.7781	34.7314

年份	上海市	天津市	北京市	重庆市	深圳市	广东省	湖北省	平均
2007	4402.07	108738.99	11.03	11.29	1206.86	11.09	98.37	16354.24
2008	4420.28	10.98	10.99	11601.32	10.87	10.92	3960.00	2860.77
2009	107747.22	10.95	607.36	13747.05	106326.27	107070.87	109761.92	63610.23
2010	464.52	1320.87	626.65	108428.24	3613.52	750.69	1902.94	16729.63
2011	10.94	2659.89	403.30	8248.41	739.53	38.31	5740.90	2548.75
2012	274.89	729.58	106764.61	3705.51	3482.85	5181.35	3563.06	17671.69
2013	10.95	698.22	491.38	20420.98	6269.66	203.90	181.67	4039.54
2014	128.36	267.49	10.86	4247.42	239.01	10.84	11.02	702.14
2015	10.95	10.92	328.97	7462.72	589.44	1998.50	51.14	1493.23
2016	14.09	981.88	10.85	541.99	10.79	270.16	11.00	262.97
平均	11748.43	11542.98	10926.60	17841.49	12248.88	11554.66	12528.20	12627.32

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