基于地理加权回归模型的古树名木资源特征及分布格局分析——以浙江省永嘉县为例

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2026.02.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

浙江省永嘉县古树名木资源丰富,分析其特征及分布格局对保护当地古树名木具有重要意义。基于浙江省永嘉县的2期古树名木资源调查数据,引入生长势指数作为量化标准,采用皮尔逊相关性分析和ArcGIS空间自相关分析方法进行相关性分析,并建立地理加权回归模型,分析古树名木在永嘉县范围内的资源特征、空间异质性和分布格局。结果表明:1)永嘉县目前存活古树名木1 381株,隶属于31科、51属、70种;2)皮尔逊相关系数分析,从8个环境因子中筛选出坡度、海拔、土层厚度、年平均气温、年蒸发量、年降水量等对古树名木的生长发育具有较大影响的环境因子,其中年平均气温的影响作用最为显著,与树龄、树高、胸径和冠幅均呈极显著相关(P<0.01),相关系数(r)分别为-0.089、0.072、0.116和0.347;3)永嘉县古树名木空间自相关分析莫兰指数为0.142,P值为0.077,处于边缘显著水平,表明空间分布存在微弱的空间自相关,具有一定的集聚特征,北部为高聚类、高密度区域;4)永嘉县古树名木生长势指数对环境因子的响应程度表现出明显的空间异质性,整体呈现由中部地区向四周逐渐增强的趋势,中部地区响应程度最低,西北部地区响应程度最高。研究结果可为未来永嘉县古树名木保护和管理提供理论依据。

Abstract:

Yongjia County,Zhejiang Province has abundant resources of ancient and famous trees.Analyzing their characteristics and distribution patterns is of great significance for protecting local ancient and famous trees.Based on two surveys of ancient and famous tree resources in Yongjia County,Zhejiang Province,the growth potential index is introduced as a quantitative standard.Pearson correlation coefficient and ArcGIS spatial autocorrelation analysis methods are used to establish a geographically weighted regression model to analyze the resource characteristics,spatial heterogeneity,and distribution pattern of ancient and famous trees within Yongjia County.The results showed that:1)There are 1 381 ancient and famous trees surviving in Yongjia County,belonging to 31 families,51 genera,and 70 species.2)Through Pearson correlation analysis,environmental factors such as slope,altitude,soil layer thickness,annual average temperature,annual evaporation,and annual precipitation were selected from 8 environmental factors that have a significant impact on the growth and development of ancient and famous trees.Among them,altitude and annual average temperature have the most significant impact,and these two environmental factors are highly correlated with tree age,height,diameter at breast height,and crown width,with correlation coefficients(r)of -0.089,0.072,0.116,and 0.347,respectively.3)The Moran’s index for spatial autocorrelation analysis of ancient and famous trees in Yongjia County is 0.142,with pvalue of 0.077,which is at the marginal significance level.This indicates that there is a weak spatial autocorrelation in the spatial distribution,which has certain clustering characteristics and significant differences in spatial distribution.The northern region is a high clustering and high-density area.4)The response degree of the growth index of ancient and famous trees in Yongjia County to environmental factors shows significant spatial heterogeneity,with an overall trend of gradually increasing from the central region to the surrounding areas.The response degree is the lowest in the central region and the highest in the northwest region.The research results would provide a theoretical basis for the protection and management of ancient and famous trees in Yongjia County in the future.

Key words: ancient and famous tree, Pearson correlation coefficient, distribution pattern, Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)Model, influence factor

中图分类号:

S711

陈振铭, 李茂盛, 郑洁敏, 林海萍, 戴惠明. 基于地理加权回归模型的古树名木资源特征及分布格局分析——以浙江省永嘉县为例[J]. 林草资源研究, 2026,(2): 80-92.

CHEN Zhenming, LI Maosheng, ZHENG Jiemin, LIN Haiping, DAI Huiming. Analysis of characteristics and distribution patterns of ancient and famous tree resources by using geographically weighted regression: A case study of Yongjia County in Zhejiang Province[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2026,(2): 80-92.

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指标类别	采集内容	调查方法
空间信息	GPS坐标(±3 m)	手持佳明ETREX201X双星定位
生长指标	树高	激光测距仪(徕卡DISTO)^[7]
	胸径	胸径尺测量胸高1.3 m处^[7]
	冠幅	数码设备拍摄后测量投影^[7]
环境因子	海拔(SRTM 30 m分辨率DEM提取)	ArcGIS空间插值法
	坡度/坡向(ASTER GDEM计算)	ENVI 5.3地形分析
	土层厚度	洛阳铲井字布孔法取样^[8]

影响因子	树龄	树高	胸径	冠幅
坡度	0.001	-0.056^*	-0.050	-0.205^**
海拔	0.076^**	-0.080^**	-0.114^**	-0.323^**
土层厚度	-0.082^**	-0.015	-0.049	0.057^*
年平均气温	-0.089^**	0.072^**	0.116^**	0.347^**
年蒸发量	-0.090^**	0.044	0.160^**	0.373^**
年降水量	0.099^**	-0.048	-0.107^**	-0.312^**