关键词: 土地利用动态度, MLP_ANN模型, Marcov模型, 预测, 晋江

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to explore the evolution law of land use and the future land use status in Jinjiang City.This paper analyzed the dynamic change of land use type with three remote sensing images in 1990,2000 and 2010.Based on the remote sensing interpretation data and the land use dynamic change influencing factors,this paper constructed the land use forecasting model(LCM).This model was used to forecast the quantity and distribution of land use in 2020 and 2030 in Jinjiang.The results are as follows:(1) The Kappa indices of LCM model in 2010 were all more than 80%.(2) The prediction results show that construction land will increase in the central and north parts of Jinjiang,and the decrease of cultivated land will be distributed in the central urban area of Jinjiang future zoning.The bare land will decrease in the LCM model prediction,mainly in the coastal area.While the forest land will decrease in 2020,but the growth trend will appear after 2020,and mainly in the coastal towns.This paper indicated that the accuracy and credibility of LCM prediction were high and provided a reasonable basis for the future planning of land use in Jinjiang City and the direction of regional economic development.

Key words: land use dynamics, MLP_ANN model, Marcov model, prediction, Jinjiang