Population structure characteristics and regeneration trend prediction of Abies fanjingshanensis with an extremely small population based on a permanent plot

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2026.01.011

Abstract

Abstract:

Abies fanjingshanensis,a Key Protected Wild Plants of National Importance Class I tree with an extremely small population,is distributed exclusively in Guizhou Fanjingshan National Nature Reserve.Ecological studies on its population structure and dynamics remain insufficient.To explore its population structure characteristics and predict its regeneration trends,a 16 hm² permanent plot was established in 2022.The population age-class structure was divided using basal diameter,and the population dynamic indices,life tables,and survival curves were analyzed.Combined with mortality density and hazard rate functions,the population mortality pattern was explored,and a time-series model was used to predict the quantity and trends of A.fanjingshanensis population within the study area.The results showed that:1)The population exhibited an atypical pyramid structure with a high proportion of young individuals(62.87%),but the age-class II seedlings(dynamic index is -72.92%)were significantly insufficient and exhibited replacement difficulty.2)Survival curve belonged to the Deevey-II type,indicating that mortality rate of individuals in all age-classes was relatively stable,individuals in low age-classes showed obvious mortality risks.3)The overall population showed a growing trend(38.46%),but age-class differentiation existed,and suggesting potential negative growth in some age-classes.The study concludes that despite current population stability,insufficient recruitment and high mortality risk of individuals in low age-classes may jeopardize future structural stability.It is recommended to strengthen conservation measures for young trees to ensure continuous population regeneration.

Key words: Abies fanjingshanensis, permanent plot, population structure, dynamic changes, survival curve, risk analysis

CLC Number:

S718.54

TIAN Taian, ZHANG Wei, LI Haibo, YANG Wei, HOU Xiangwen, YANG Ni, LIU Jianfeng. Population structure characteristics and regeneration trend prediction of Abies fanjingshanensis with an extremely small population based on a permanent plot[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2026, (1): 105-114.

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龄级	基径/cm	龄级阶段
Ⅰ	<2	幼龄
Ⅱ	2~<5	幼龄
Ⅲ	5~<15	幼龄
Ⅳ	15~<25	中龄
Ⅴ	25~<35	中龄
Ⅵ	35~<45	中龄
Ⅶ	45~<55	老龄
Ⅷ	55~<65	老龄
Ⅸ	65~<75	老龄
Ⅹ	≥75	老龄

动态变化指数	动态指数值/%
V₁	57.74
V₂	-72.92
V₃	41.82
V₄	45.62
V₅	47.46
V₆	74.19
V₇	87.50
V₈	-100.00
V₉	50.00
V_p	38.46
V'_p	1.92

龄级	a_x	l_x	d_x	q_x	L_x	T_x	e_x	lnl_x	K_x
Ⅰ	346	1 000	197	0.20	902	2 819	2.82	6.91	0.22
Ⅱ	278	803	197	0.24	705	1 918	2.39	6.69	0.28
Ⅲ	210	607	197	0.32	509	1 212	2.00	6.41	0.39
Ⅳ	142	410	197	0.48	312	704	1.71	6.02	0.65
Ⅴ	74	214	78	0.36	175	392	1.83	5.37	0.45
Ⅵ	47	136	43	0.32	114	217	1.60	4.91	0.38
Ⅶ	32	92	43	0.47	71	103	1.11	4.53	0.63
Ⅷ	17	49	43	0.88	27	32	0.65	3.89	2.14
Ⅸ	2	6	3	0.50	4	4	0.75	1.75	0.69
Ⅹ	1	3						1.06

存活曲线	拟合模型	拟合结果	R²	F	P
Deevey-Ⅱ	N_x=N₀e^-bx	N_x=1 017.99e^-0.61x	0.82	35.95	0.000
Deevey-Ⅲ	N_x=N₀x^-b	N_x=931.07x^-2.15	0.60	12.11	0.008

龄级	实际存活数/株	M₂	M₄	M₆	M₈
Ⅰ	239
Ⅱ	101	170
Ⅲ	373	237
Ⅳ	217	295	233
Ⅴ	118	168	202
Ⅵ	62	90	193	185
Ⅶ	16	39	103	148
Ⅷ	2	9	50	131	188
Ⅸ	4	3	21	70	149
Ⅹ	2	3	6	34	132