极小种群梵净山冷杉固定样地种群结构特征及更新趋势预测

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2026.01.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

梵净山冷杉为极小种群国家一级保护野生植物,仅分布于贵州梵净山国家级自然保护区,种群生态学研究尚不充分。为探讨其种群结构特征与预测更新趋势,于2022年在贵州梵净山国家级自然保护区布设16 hm²固定监测样地,采用基径划分种群龄级结构,分析种群动态指数、生命表和存活曲线,结合死亡密度函数和危险率函数,探讨种群死亡模式,并利用时间序列模型预测样地内梵净山冷杉种群的数量和趋势。结果表明:1)种群呈非典型金字塔形结构,幼龄个体占比较高(62.87%),但幼苗Ⅱ龄级明显不足且更替困难,Ⅱ龄级动态指数为-72.92%;2)存活曲线属于Deevey-Ⅱ型,表明各龄级个体死亡率相对稳定,低龄级个体出现明显的死亡风险;3)种群整体呈增长趋势,整个种群动态指数为38.46%,但存在龄级分化,部分龄级未来可能出现负增长。样地内梵净山冷杉种群结构整体稳定,但幼苗补充不足及低龄级的个体高死亡风险可能导致未来种群结构失稳和衰退。建议加强对幼龄个体保护,确保种群持续更新。

关键词: 梵净山冷杉, 固定监测样地, 种群结构, 动态变化, 存活曲线, 风险分析

Abstract:

Abies fanjingshanensis,a Key Protected Wild Plants of National Importance Class I tree with an extremely small population,is distributed exclusively in Guizhou Fanjingshan National Nature Reserve.Ecological studies on its population structure and dynamics remain insufficient.To explore its population structure characteristics and predict its regeneration trends,a 16 hm² permanent plot was established in 2022.The population age-class structure was divided using basal diameter,and the population dynamic indices,life tables,and survival curves were analyzed.Combined with mortality density and hazard rate functions,the population mortality pattern was explored,and a time-series model was used to predict the quantity and trends of A.fanjingshanensis population within the study area.The results showed that:1)The population exhibited an atypical pyramid structure with a high proportion of young individuals(62.87%),but the age-class II seedlings(dynamic index is -72.92%)were significantly insufficient and exhibited replacement difficulty.2)Survival curve belonged to the Deevey-II type,indicating that mortality rate of individuals in all age-classes was relatively stable,individuals in low age-classes showed obvious mortality risks.3)The overall population showed a growing trend(38.46%),but age-class differentiation existed,and suggesting potential negative growth in some age-classes.The study concludes that despite current population stability,insufficient recruitment and high mortality risk of individuals in low age-classes may jeopardize future structural stability.It is recommended to strengthen conservation measures for young trees to ensure continuous population regeneration.

Key words: Abies fanjingshanensis, permanent plot, population structure, dynamic changes, survival curve, risk analysis

中图分类号:

S718.54

田太安, 张炜, 李海波, 杨伟, 侯祥文, 杨妮, 刘健锋. 极小种群梵净山冷杉固定样地种群结构特征及更新趋势预测[J]. 林草资源研究, 2026,(1): 105-114.

TIAN Taian, ZHANG Wei, LI Haibo, YANG Wei, HOU Xiangwen, YANG Ni, LIU Jianfeng. Population structure characteristics and regeneration trend prediction of Abies fanjingshanensis with an extremely small population based on a permanent plot[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2026,(1): 105-114.

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龄级	基径/cm	龄级阶段
Ⅰ	<2	幼龄
Ⅱ	2~<5	幼龄
Ⅲ	5~<15	幼龄
Ⅳ	15~<25	中龄
Ⅴ	25~<35	中龄
Ⅵ	35~<45	中龄
Ⅶ	45~<55	老龄
Ⅷ	55~<65	老龄
Ⅸ	65~<75	老龄
Ⅹ	≥75	老龄

动态变化指数	动态指数值/%
V₁	57.74
V₂	-72.92
V₃	41.82
V₄	45.62
V₅	47.46
V₆	74.19
V₇	87.50
V₈	-100.00
V₉	50.00
V_p	38.46
V'_p	1.92

龄级	a_x	l_x	d_x	q_x	L_x	T_x	e_x	lnl_x	K_x
Ⅰ	346	1 000	197	0.20	902	2 819	2.82	6.91	0.22
Ⅱ	278	803	197	0.24	705	1 918	2.39	6.69	0.28
Ⅲ	210	607	197	0.32	509	1 212	2.00	6.41	0.39
Ⅳ	142	410	197	0.48	312	704	1.71	6.02	0.65
Ⅴ	74	214	78	0.36	175	392	1.83	5.37	0.45
Ⅵ	47	136	43	0.32	114	217	1.60	4.91	0.38
Ⅶ	32	92	43	0.47	71	103	1.11	4.53	0.63
Ⅷ	17	49	43	0.88	27	32	0.65	3.89	2.14
Ⅸ	2	6	3	0.50	4	4	0.75	1.75	0.69
Ⅹ	1	3						1.06

存活曲线	拟合模型	拟合结果	R²	F	P
Deevey-Ⅱ	N_x=N₀e^-bx	N_x=1 017.99e^-0.61x	0.82	35.95	0.000
Deevey-Ⅲ	N_x=N₀x^-b	N_x=931.07x^-2.15	0.60	12.11	0.008

龄级	实际存活数/株	M₂	M₄	M₆	M₈
Ⅰ	239
Ⅱ	101	170
Ⅲ	373	237
Ⅳ	217	295	233
Ⅴ	118	168	202
Ⅵ	62	90	193	185
Ⅶ	16	39	103	148
Ⅷ	2	9	50	131	188
Ⅸ	4	3	21	70	149
Ⅹ	2	3	6	34	132