关键词: MaxEnt 模型, 光叶水青冈, 潜在适生区

Abstract:

Fagus lucida is a rare and endemic tree species in China.Predicting the potential suitable area of Fagus lucida in Hunan Province and exploring the dominant environmental factors influencing its distribution is of significant importance for its conservation.Based on 117 field surveys of the distribution points of Fagus lucida in Hunan,22 environmental variables affecting its distribution were selected.The MaxEnt maximum entropy model was used for prediction.1)The average AUC value of the MaxEnt model is 0.933,indicating reliable predictive accuracy making it effective in predicting suitable areas for Fagus lucida.2)The four key factors that limit the current distribution of Fagus lucida in Hunan are the seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation,average temperature in the driest season,annual rainfall,and average temperature in the wettest season.3)The total suitable habitat area for Fagus lucida in Hunan Province is 9.30×10⁴ km² with 3.10×10⁴ km² being highly to moderately suitable areas,mainly distributed in the Xuefeng Shan,Nanling,and Heng Shan mountain ranges,including the western part of Shaoyang,the southern part of Huaihua Shi,the northwestern part of Loudi,the southwestern part of Yiyang,and the northern part of Hengyang.The area of low suitability is 6.20×10⁴ km²,mainly concentrated in the low-altitude areas of Changde,Yueyang,Yiyang,Changsha and Hengyang.Climate is the main factor affecting the geographical distribution pattern of Fagus lucida in Hunan.In areas such as Shaoyang,Huaihua Shi,Loudi,Hengyang and Yiyang,annual precipitation is sufficient,and there is low seasonal precipitation variability,especially in high-altitude sunny or semi-sunny slope,which may be suitable for the introduction and protection of Fagus lucida.

Key words: MaxEnt model, Fagus lucida, potential suitable areas