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Forest and Grassland Resources Research >

2026 , Vol. 0 >Issue 1: 105 - 114

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2026.01.011

Research Briefing

Population structure characteristics and regeneration trend prediction of Abies fanjingshanensis with an extremely small population based on a permanent plot

  • TIAN Taian ,
  • ZHANG Wei ,
  • LI Haibo ,
  • YANG Wei ,
  • HOU Xiangwen ,
  • YANG Ni ,
  • LIU Jianfeng
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  • 1 Guizhou Fanjingshan Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Tongren 554400,Guizhou, China
    2 Guizhou Fanjingshan National Nature Reserve Administration, Tongren 554400,Guizhou, China
    3 Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025,Guizhou, China

Received date: 2025-07-08

  Revised date: 2025-12-20

  Online published: 2026-08-07

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Abstract

Abies fanjingshanensis,a Key Protected Wild Plants of National Importance Class I tree with an extremely small population,is distributed exclusively in Guizhou Fanjingshan National Nature Reserve.Ecological studies on its population structure and dynamics remain insufficient.To explore its population structure characteristics and predict its regeneration trends,a 16 hm2 permanent plot was established in 2022.The population age-class structure was divided using basal diameter,and the population dynamic indices,life tables,and survival curves were analyzed.Combined with mortality density and hazard rate functions,the population mortality pattern was explored,and a time-series model was used to predict the quantity and trends of A.fanjingshanensis population within the study area.The results showed that:1)The population exhibited an atypical pyramid structure with a high proportion of young individuals(62.87%),but the age-class II seedlings(dynamic index is -72.92%)were significantly insufficient and exhibited replacement difficulty.2)Survival curve belonged to the Deevey-II type,indicating that mortality rate of individuals in all age-classes was relatively stable,individuals in low age-classes showed obvious mortality risks.3)The overall population showed a growing trend(38.46%),but age-class differentiation existed,and suggesting potential negative growth in some age-classes.The study concludes that despite current population stability,insufficient recruitment and high mortality risk of individuals in low age-classes may jeopardize future structural stability.It is recommended to strengthen conservation measures for young trees to ensure continuous population regeneration.

Key words： Abies fanjingshanensis; permanent plot; population structure; dynamic changes; survival curve; risk analysis

Cite this article

TIAN Taian , ZHANG Wei , LI Haibo , YANG Wei , HOU Xiangwen , YANG Ni , LIU Jianfeng . Population structure characteristics and regeneration trend prediction of Abies fanjingshanensis with an extremely small population based on a permanent plot[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2026 , 0(1) : 105 -114 . DOI: 10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2026.01.011

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