Forest and Grassland Resources Research >
Macroeconomic impacts analysis of forest carbon sinks under carbon neutrality constraints—based on a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium simulation model
Received date: 2025-07-15
Revised date: 2025-08-20
Online published: 2026-02-13
To achieve the “dual-carbon” goals,it is necessary to coordinate economic growth with the green,low-carbon transition.Forest carbon sinks offer both cost advantages and ecological benefits,making them an important pathway to achieving the “dual-carbon” goals.With a dynamic general equilibrium framework,we construct a four-sector general equilibrium model that includes traditional industries,carbon abatement technologies,carbon capture and storage(CCS) technologies,and forest carbon sinks.Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations,we examine the optimal economic growth path under carbon-neutrality constraints and analyzes the mechanisms through which forest carbon sinks promote economic growth.The results show that:1) Under carbon-neutrality constraints,economic growth faces an “investment crowding-out” effect;incorporating forest carbon sinks into the policy toolkit can mitigate this effect and play a macroeconomic buffering role.2) The optimal carbon-neutrality investment path should follow the structure of technological endowments.When forest carbon sinks have a cost advantage,they should be prioritized;however,when the marginal costs of technology-based emission reduction and carbon sequestration approach those of forest carbon sinks,investment in technology-based emission reduction and sequestration rises rapidly in a nonlinear manner,exhibiting a “technology surge” characteristic.In responding to carbon-neutrality constraints,full use should be made of the cost advantages of forest carbon sinks.While their potential has not yet been fully realized,sound market-based compensation and incentive mechanisms should be improved to guide investment,thereby alleviating the short-term economic impacts of carbon-neutrality constraints at relatively low cost.At the same time,continuous efforts should be made to advance technological progress in emission reduction and carbon sequestration,strengthen technology reserves,and build a multi-pathway synergistic system,so as to promote the green transition and high-quality development in a manner that minimizes total social costs,thereby ensuring the achievement of China’s “dual-carbon” goals.
Benyu GUO , Heliang HUANG , Yan HUANG . Macroeconomic impacts analysis of forest carbon sinks under carbon neutrality constraints—based on a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium simulation model[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2025 , 0(4) : 15 -29 . DOI: 10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2025.04.003
| [1] | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Paris Agreement[EB/OL].(2015-12-12)[2025-08-14] https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf. |
| [2] | 中国政府网. 落实“双碳”行动建设美丽中国[EB/OL].(2024-04-28)[2025-08-14]. https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202404/content_6948005.htm. |
| [3] | 徐晋涛, 易媛媛. “双碳”目标与基于自然的解决方案:森林碳汇的潜力和政策需求[J]. 农业经济问题, 2022(9):11-23. |
| [4] | 敖贵艳, 吴伟光, 曹先磊, 等. 基于三阶段DEA模型的碳汇竹林生产效率分析:来自浙江安吉的实证[J]. 农林经济管理学报, 2019, 18(5):656-666. |
| [5] | 沈月琴, 王枫, 张耀启, 等, 中国南方杉木林业碳汇供给的经济分析[J]. 林业科学, 2013, 49(9):140-147. |
| [6] | 龙飞, 沈月琴, 祁慧博, 等. 基于企业减排需求的森林碳汇定价机制[J]. 林业科学, 2020, 56(2):164-173 |
| [7] | 姜霞, 黄祖辉. 经济新常态下中国森林碳汇潜力分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2016(11):57-67. |
| [8] | 刘国华, 傅伯杰, 方精云. 中国森林碳动态及其对全球碳平衡的贡献[J]. 生态学报, 2000, 20(5):733-740. |
| [9] | NORDHAUS W D. An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases[J]. Science, 1992, 258(5086):1315-1319. |
| [10] | NORDHAUS W D. The climate casino:Risk,uncertainty,and economics for a warming world[M]. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2013. |
| [11] | NORDHAUS W D, Yang Z. A regional dynamic general-equilibrium model of alternative climate-change strategies[J]. American Economic Review, 1996, 86(4):741-765. |
| [12] | ACEMOGLU D, AGHION P, BURSZTYN L, et al. The environment and directed technical change[J]. American Economic Review, 2012, 102(1):131-166. |
| [13] | ANNICCHIARICO B, DIO D F. Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2015, 73:1-21. |
| [14] | SOHNGEN B, MENDELSOHN R. An optimal control model of forest carbon sequestration[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2003, 85(2):448-457. |
| [15] | GOLOSOV M, HASSLER J, KRUSELL P, et al. Optimal taxes on fossil fuel in general equilibrium[J]. Econometrica, 2014, 82(1):41-88. |
| [16] | 沈月琴, 曾程, 王成军, 等. 碳汇补贴和碳税政策对林业经济的影响研究:基于CGE的分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(4):560-568. |
| [17] | 吴伟光, 许骞骞, 羊凌玉, 等. 林业增汇潜力及其对中国碳中和的经济影响分析[J]. 农业技术经济, 2024(8):128-144. |
| [18] | 丁冠群, 王铮, 孙翊. 基于多行业DSGE模型的中国碳减排政策效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022, 32(1):19-30. |
| [19] | 沈维萍, 夏克郁, 陈迎. 碳中和目标下负排放策略的综合效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2024, 34(2):1-10. |
| [20] | 清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院项目综合报告编写组. 中国长期低碳发展战略与转型路径研究》综合报告[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30(11):1-25. |
| [21] | LJUNGQVIST L, SARGENT T J. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory[M]. 4 ed. Cambridge,MA: The MIT Press, 2018. |
| [22] | ACEMOGLU D. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth[M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. |
| [23] | HEER B, MAUSSNER A. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling:Computational Methods and Applications[M]. 3rd ed. Cham: Springer, 2023. |
| [24] | 陈昆亭, 龚六堂. 中国经济增长的周期与波动的研究[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2004(3):803-818. |
| [25] | 张军, 吴桂英, 张吉鹏. 中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J]. 经济研究, 2004(10):35-44. |
| [26] | 单豪杰. 中国资本存量K的再估算:1952—2006年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2008(10):17-31. |
| [27] | 田友春. 中国工业分行业资本存量测算:1985—2014年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2016, 33(6):3-21. |
| [28] | 白重恩, 张琼. 中国的资本回报率及其影响因素分析[J]. 世界经济, 2014(10):3-30. |
| [29] | 李宏瑾, 唐黎阳. 中国资本回报率变化趋势及主要行业比较研究[J]. 南方金融, 2024(7):3-15. |
| [30] | 中华人民共和国生态环境部. 全国碳市场发展报告(2024)[EB/OL].(2024-07-22)[2025-08-14]. https://www.mee.gov.cn/ywdt/xwfb/202407/t20240722_1082192.shtml. |
| [31] | 中华人民共和国生态环境部. 中华人民共和国气候变化第一次双年透明度报告[EB/OL].(2024-12-31)[2025-08-14]. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/中华人民共和国气候变化第一次双年透明度报告.pdf. |
| [32] | 蔡博峰, 李琦, 张贤, 等. 中国二氧化碳捕集利用与封存年度报告(2021):中国CCUS路径研究[EB/OL].(2024-10-25)[2025-08-14]. http://www.yrdcpcn.org.cn/c91/20241106/i264922.phtml. |
| [33] | 陈诗一. 工业二氧化碳的影子价格:参数化和非参数化方法[J]. 世界经济, 2010(8):93-111. |
| [34] | 陈诗一, 王畅, 郭越. 面向碳中和目标的中国工业部门减排路径与战略选择[J]. 管理科学学报, 2024(4):1-20. |
| [35] | 国际能源署. 通过CCUS(碳捕集、利用与封存)技术改造实现中国煤电碳减排[R]. 巴黎: 国际能源署, 2019. |
| [36] | 阳平坚, 彭栓, 王静, 等. 碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术发展现状及应用展望[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(1):404-416. |
| [37] | 杜强, 李琦, 黄馨. 碳捕集技术经济性评价综述与展望[J]. 生态经济, 2025, 41(5):219-227. |
| [38] | 王群伟, 周鹏, 周德群. 我国二氧化碳排放绩效的动态变化、区域差异及影响因素[J]. 中国工业经济, 2010(1):45-54. |
| [39] | 魏丽莉, 候宇琦. 中国工业二氧化碳边际减排成本测算与行业碳达峰预测[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2023, 43(2):63-77. |
| [40] | 茹雪, 雷鹏飞, 刘培. 二氧化碳动态边际减排成本及其影响机制[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022, 32(11):43-57. |
| [41] | 黄宰胜, 陈钦. 基于造林成本法的林业碳汇成本收益影响因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(3):485-492. |
| [42] | 许骞骞, 曹先磊, 孙婷, 等. 中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(12):3217-3233. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |