Discussion on the Technical System of Forest Fire Risk Assessment

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2023.02.003

Abstract

Abstract:

The risk assessment index system of forest fire was constructed by comprehensively utilizing the hazard of forest fire,the exposure and vulnerability of disaster bodies.The hazard of disaster was based on the contents of combustibles,meteorological conditions,field fire sources,terrain and topography,the exposure of disaster bodies was based on the contents of above-ground living biomass,number of buildings,population,GDP,and the vulnerability of disaster bodies was based on the proportion of flammable forest land,proportion of combustible building area,proportion of the elderly and young population,vulnerability of economic activities.Using The Analytic Hierarchy Process and expert scoring,this paper determined the weights of each evaluation indicator.It refined the accuracy of forest fire risk assessment to multiple spatial scales such as small class,30 arc second geographic grid,township level,county level,etc.to meet the accuracy requirements of forest fire prevention management at different administrative levels of the country,province,city,and county.At the same time,this paper proposed the best solution for forest fire risk identification in different regions and periods.

Key words: forest fire, hazard, disaster bodies, exposure, vulnerability, risk assessment

CLC Number:

S762

JIANG Chunying, YANG Xueqing, ZHANG Guoli, SUN Zhichao, JIANG Yun'an, JIANG Aijun. Discussion on the Technical System of Forest Fire Risk Assessment[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2023, (2): 17-26.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 16

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燃烧类型	分类	分值
易燃	1	1.0
可燃	2	0.5
难燃	3	0.1

用火频率的指标值/ (次/km²)	用火频率的分值	重要火源点密度的指标值/ (个/hm²)	重要火源点密度的分值	无民事行为能力和限制民事行为能力人口密度的指标值/(人/hm²)	无民事行为能力和限制民事行为能力人口密度的分值
0	0	0	0	0	0
(0,0.01]	0.3	(0,0.02]	0.1	(0,0.01]	0.1
(0.01,0.03]	0.5	(0.02,0.07]	0.2	(0.01,0.02]	0.2
(0.03,0.05]	0.6	(0.07,0.14]	0.3	(0.02,0.03]	0.3
(0.05,0.10]	0.8	(0.14,0.27]	0.4	(0.03,0.05]	0.4
(0.10,0.15]	0.9	(0.27,0.46]	0.5	(0.05,0.10]	0.5
>0.15	1.0	(0.46,0.77]	0.6	(0.10,0.22]	0.6
		(0.77,1.30]	0.7	(0.22,0.56]	0.7
		(1.30,2.50]	0.8	(0.56,3.78]	0.8
		(2.50,6.11]	0.9	(3.78,11.75]	0.9
		>6.11	1.0	>11.75	1.0

气象条件的指标值						气象条件的分值
月大风日数/d	月平均风速/(m/s)	月平均降雨量/mm	月平均气温/℃	月最高气温/℃	月最小相对湿度/%	气象条件的分值
0	≤0.5	>136	≤-23	≤-7	>58	0
(0,0.5]	(0.5,0.9]	(121,136]	(-23,-18]	(-7,-3]	(52,58]	0.1
(0.5,1.0]	(0.9,1.3]	(106,121]	(-18,-13]	(-3,1]	(46,52]	0.2
(1.0,1.5]	(1.3,1.7]	(91,106]	(-13,-8]	(1,5]	(40,46]	0.3
(1.5,2.0]	(1.7,2.1]	(76,91]	(-8,-3]	(5,9]	(34,40]	0.4
(2.0,2.5]	(2.1,2.5]	(61,76]	(-3,2]	(9,13]	(28,34]	0.5
(2.5,3.0]	(2.5,2.9]	(46,61]	(2,7]	(13,17]	(22,28]	0.6
(3.0,3.5]	(2.9,3.3]	(31,46]	(7,12]	(17,21]	(16,22]	0.7
(3.5,4.0]	(3.3,3.7]	(16,31]	(12,17]	(21,26]	(10,16]	0.8
(4.0,4.5]	(3.7,4.1]	(1,16]	(17,22]	(26,30]	(4,10]	0.9
>4.5	>4.1	≤1	>22	>30	≤4	1.0

坡度的指标值/(°)	坡度的分值	坡向(方位角)的指标值/(°)	坡向的分值	坡位的指标值	坡位的分值
平坡(<5)	0.10	北坡(337.5~<22.5)	0.10	脊部	0.2
缓坡(5~<15)	0.34	东北坡(22.5~<67.5)	0.20	上坡	0.6
斜坡(15~<25)	0.60	东坡(67.5~<112.5)	0.50	中坡	0.8
陡坡(25~<35)	0.80	东南坡(112.5~<157.5)	0.80	下坡	1.0
急坡(35~<45)	0.86	南坡(157.5~<202.5)	1.00	山谷	0.4
险坡(≥45)	1.00	西南坡(202.5~<247.5)	0.86	平地	0.2
		西坡(247.5~<292.5)	0.60	全坡	0.2
		西北坡(292.5~<337.5)	0.34
		无坡向(坡度<5)	0.60

承灾体暴露度指标	指标解释
地上活生物量	每公顷林地乔木、灌木、草本等地上活生物的总生物量,单位为t/hm²
房屋建筑数量	每公顷林地房屋建筑数量与防火基础设施数量,单位为栋(或个)/hm²
人口数量	每公顷林地人口数量,单位为人/hm²
GDP	每公顷林地GDP,单位为万元/hm²