Growth Model of Carbon Storage in Pinus tabuliformis Plantation Based on National Forest Inventory Data

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2024.03.010

Abstract

Abstract:

National forest inventory data are important resources for understanding the dynamics of forest carbon cycling at regional and global scales.Developing growth models of carbon storage has a great importance in practice,which can provide a decision-making basis for promoting high-quality development of forestry and grassland industry,and implementing the carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization strategy.Based on the carbon storage dataset of 780 sample plots from the ninth national forest inventory of China,the growth model of carbon storage for Pinus tabuliformis plantation was developed by using a weighted nonlinear regression method.And the effects of two climate factors:Mean annual temperature(MAT)and mean annual precipitation(MAP)on carbon storage growth were analyzed by using a variable parameter method.The results showed that:1)The mean prediction error(MPE)of growth models of carbon storage for P.tabuliformis plantation was less than 5%,and the total relative error(TRE)was approximately less than 1.00%.2)The age of inflection point and quantitative maturity were 30 years and 53 years,respectively,when the current annual increment and average increment of carbon storage reached a maximum of 1.19t/hm² and 0.94 t/hm²,respectively.3)The MAP had an impact on the growth process of carbon storage and the capacity of carbon sequestration for P.tabuliformis plantation,and the degree of its impact varied in different MAP levels and variation.The carbon storage gradually decreased with the decrease of MAP,and the annual mean of carbon storage decreased by approximately 3.64%for the P.tabuliformis plantation,when the MAP decreased by every 100 mm.It is essential to employ scientific management strategies to fully explore and develop the carbon sequestration potential of P.tabuliformis plantation.The change pattern of carbon storage with forest age at different MAP levels is an important basis for determining a reasonable management cycle of P.tabuliformis plantation.

Key words: carbon storage growth, variable parametermodel, climatic factor, Pinus tabuliformis plantation

CLC Number:

S718.5

GAO Yonglong, LAI Guanghui, WANG Yuerong, WANG Huan, ZHANG Yiming, SHI Shaowei, ZHANG Lianjin. Growth Model of Carbon Storage in Pinus tabuliformis Plantation Based on National Forest Inventory Data[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2024, (3): 79-87.

Figures/Tables 11

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名称	一元生物量模型	含碳系数
地上生物量	M_A=0.086 112D²^.^{461 57}(D≥5 cm) M_A=0.429 370D¹^.^{463 29}(D<5 cm)	0.518 4
地下生物量	M_B=0.010 926D²^.^{664 78}(D≥5 cm) M_B=0.109 305D¹^.^{233 82}(D<5 cm)	0.509 3

统计特征	碳储量/ (t/hm²)	年龄/ a	年均降水量/ mm	年均气温/ ℃
最小值	0.05	3.00	297.00	7.00
最大值	108.64	68.00	1 213.00	14.00
平均值±标准差	28.45±21.99	33.00±13.00	516.00±117.00	11.60±1.30
变动系数/%	77.28	39.50	22.60	11.13

模型	参数估计值				评价指标
模型	β	γ	δ		R²	RMSE/(t/hm²)	MPE/%	TRE/%
(1)	91.04	0.027 26	2.234		0.423	16.73	4.13	0.00

模型	固定参数				可变参数
模型	β₀	γ₀	δ₀		β₁	β₂	γ₁	γ₂	δ₁	δ₂
(3)	131.80	0.012 16	2.041		-30.37	0.000 0	0.016 14	0.000 0	-0.078 20	0.000 0

模型	评价指标
模型	R²	RMSE/(t/hm²)	MPE/%	TRE/%
(3)	0.438	16.54	4.08	-0.06