湿地是重要的自然资源,在陆地生态系统中发挥着不可替代的生态功能。为促进鄱阳湖湿地系统人地协调发展,从水质安全、总初级生产力水平、地理禀赋3个维度构建生态安全评价指标体系,基于生态位理论测算2013—2018年鄱阳湖生态安全水平,并构建普通最小二乘法(OLS)模型识别影响鄱阳湖生态安全的关键影响因素,分析水质安全在不同年份的表现,以及关键指标对湖区初级生产力的影响。结果表明:1)2013—2018年,枯水期和丰水期的生态安全生态位宽度均呈总体递增趋势,丰水期的生态安全优于枯水期;2)2013—2018年,枯水期的生态位重叠度总体呈下降趋势,丰水期呈先降后升且总体稳定态势,其生态位重叠度显著低于枯水期;3)回归分析结果表明,枯水期与丰水期的生态安全水平均呈显著改善趋势。鄱阳湖区域生态安全总体稳定,且呈稳健增长趋势,但局部受工农业活动干扰生态安全水平下降。滨湖工业园和矮围是鄱阳湖生态安全的核心干扰因素,对区域人与自然和谐共生造成一定威胁。

Wetlands serve as vital natural resources for humanity and fulfill indispensable ecological functions within terrestrial ecosystems.To promote the harmonious development of the human and nature in the wetland system,the ecological security evaluation index system is constructed from three dimensions,involving water quality safety,gross primary productivity level,and geographical endowment.Using the ecological niche theory,the ecological security level of Poyang Lake from 2013 to 2018 was calculated,and the Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)Model was constructed to identify the key influencing factors of Poyang Lake's ecological security.The performance of water quality safety in different years and the impact of key indicators on the primary productivity of the lake area were analyzed.The results showed that:1)From 2013 to 2018,the ecological niche width of both the dry and wet seasons exhibited an overall ascending tendency,with the ecological security of the wet season being superior to that of the dry season.2)From 2013 to 2018,the ecological niche overlap during the dry season demonstrated a general downward trend,while the wet season initially declined and then stabilized,with the ecological niche overlap in the wet season being significantly lower than that in the dry season.3)From the regression analysis,the ecological security levels of both the dry season and the wet season showed a significant improvement trend.The ecological security of the Poyang Lake area was generally stable and showed a steady growth trend,but the ecological level in some areas declined due to the interference of industrial and agricultural activities.The lakeside industrial park and the low embankment were the core disturbance factors of Poyang Lake's ecological security,which posed a threat to the harmonious coexistence of human and nature in the region.