针对采用单一方法测算的林地定额与实际需求存在较大偏差的问题,基于贵州省2016—2024年相关数据,结合“十五五”时期林草要素保障总要求,采用新增建设用地需求法、时间序列法(包括函数模型法、移动平均法、指数平滑法、灰色模型法)及基于国民经济参数的逐步回归法测算林地定额;构建多模型融合测算框架,通过专家评估量化测算方法的可信度,建立包括层次分析法(AHP)、优序图法(PDM)和等权法(EWM)的多维度权重分配体系。结果表明:1)单一方法测算结果存在显著差异(2.93万hm²~4.50万hm²),基于AHP的多模型融合测算结果(3.83万hm²)通过严格一致性检验,可作为贵州省“十五五”期间占用林地定额的规划指标。2)多模型融合方法通过“整合优势、弱化误差”有效规避单一方法的局限性,可提升测算精度与实用性。测算的占用林地定额可为贵州省林地保护利用规划编制提供科学依据,为西南高原山地等相似生态区的林地定额核算提供参考。

To address the significant deviation between the forestland quota used as a planning indicator calculated by a single method and the actual demand,this study used data from Guizhou Province from 2016 to 2024 and was in line with the overall requirements for forestry and grassland resource allocation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.Three categories of methods were used to estimate the forestland quota:the new construction land demand method,time-series methods (including the function model,moving average,exponential smoothing,and the gray model),and stepwise regression based on national economic parameters.A multi-model fusion calculation framework was constructed.The credibility of each calculation method was quantified through expert assessment,establishing a multi-dimensional weight allocation system that includes the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the Precedence Diagram Method (PDM),and the Equal Weighting Method (EWM).The results indicate that:1)There are significant discrepancies among the results calculated by individual methods,ranging from 29 300 to 45 000 hm².The multi-model fusion result based on AHP,which is 38 300 hm²,passed a rigorous consistency test and can serve as the planning indicator for the forestland quota for occupied forestland in Guizhou Province during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.2)The multi-fmodel fusion approach effectively mitigates the limitations inherent in single-method analyses by integrating their strengths and minimizing individual errors,thereby enhancing the precision and practical utility of the estimation.The calculated forestland quota for occupation can serve as a scientific foundation for formulating the forestland protection and utilization plan in Guizhou Province.Furthermore,it would provide a reference for forestland quota accounting in similar ecological regions,such as the southwestern plateau and mountainous areas.