实现“双碳”目标,需平衡与协调经济增长与绿色低碳转型。森林碳汇兼具成本优势与生态效益,是实现“双碳”目标的重要路径。基于动态一般均衡框架,构建包含传统生产部门、碳减排技术、碳捕集与封存技术及森林碳汇的四部门一般均衡模型,通过理论求解和数值模拟,探讨碳中和约束下的最优经济增长路径,并分析森林碳汇对经济增长的促进机制。结果表明:1)在碳中和约束下,经济增长面临“投资挤出”效应,将森林碳汇纳入政策工具箱,可缓解该效应,有效发挥经济缓冲作用;2)最优碳中和投资路径应遵循技术禀赋结构。当森林碳汇具有成本优势时,应优先配置森林碳汇;而当技术减排增汇的边际成本接近森林碳汇时,对技术减排增汇的投资将非线性快速上升,呈现“技术涌现”特征。面对碳中和约束,应充分利用森林碳汇的成本优势,在其潜力尚未完全释放阶段,通过健全市场化补偿与激励机制引导投资,以较低成本缓解碳中和约束对短期经济的冲击;同时应持续推进减排增汇技术进步,加强技术储备,构建多路径协同体系,基于社会总成本最小化的路径推动绿色转型与高质量发展,从而保障我国“双碳”目标的实现。

To achieve the “dual-carbon” goals,it is necessary to coordinate economic growth with the green,low-carbon transition.Forest carbon sinks offer both cost advantages and ecological benefits,making them an important pathway to achieving the “dual-carbon” goals.With a dynamic general equilibrium framework,we construct a four-sector general equilibrium model that includes traditional industries,carbon abatement technologies,carbon capture and storage(CCS) technologies,and forest carbon sinks.Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations,we examine the optimal economic growth path under carbon-neutrality constraints and analyzes the mechanisms through which forest carbon sinks promote economic growth.The results show that:1) Under carbon-neutrality constraints,economic growth faces an “investment crowding-out” effect;incorporating forest carbon sinks into the policy toolkit can mitigate this effect and play a macroeconomic buffering role.2) The optimal carbon-neutrality investment path should follow the structure of technological endowments.When forest carbon sinks have a cost advantage,they should be prioritized;however,when the marginal costs of technology-based emission reduction and carbon sequestration approach those of forest carbon sinks,investment in technology-based emission reduction and sequestration rises rapidly in a nonlinear manner,exhibiting a “technology surge” characteristic.In responding to carbon-neutrality constraints,full use should be made of the cost advantages of forest carbon sinks.While their potential has not yet been fully realized,sound market-based compensation and incentive mechanisms should be improved to guide investment,thereby alleviating the short-term economic impacts of carbon-neutrality constraints at relatively low cost.At the same time,continuous efforts should be made to advance technological progress in emission reduction and carbon sequestration,strengthen technology reserves,and build a multi-pathway synergistic system,so as to promote the green transition and high-quality development in a manner that minimizes total social costs,thereby ensuring the achievement of China’s “dual-carbon” goals.