关键词: 碳中和, 森林碳汇, 林业政策, 动态一般均衡模型

Abstract:

To achieve the “dual-carbon” goals,it is necessary to coordinate economic growth with the green,low-carbon transition.Forest carbon sinks offer both cost advantages and ecological benefits,making them an important pathway to achieving the “dual-carbon” goals.With a dynamic general equilibrium framework,we construct a four-sector general equilibrium model that includes traditional industries,carbon abatement technologies,carbon capture and storage(CCS) technologies,and forest carbon sinks.Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations,we examine the optimal economic growth path under carbon-neutrality constraints and analyzes the mechanisms through which forest carbon sinks promote economic growth.The results show that:1) Under carbon-neutrality constraints,economic growth faces an “investment crowding-out” effect;incorporating forest carbon sinks into the policy toolkit can mitigate this effect and play a macroeconomic buffering role.2) The optimal carbon-neutrality investment path should follow the structure of technological endowments.When forest carbon sinks have a cost advantage,they should be prioritized;however,when the marginal costs of technology-based emission reduction and carbon sequestration approach those of forest carbon sinks,investment in technology-based emission reduction and sequestration rises rapidly in a nonlinear manner,exhibiting a “technology surge” characteristic.In responding to carbon-neutrality constraints,full use should be made of the cost advantages of forest carbon sinks.While their potential has not yet been fully realized,sound market-based compensation and incentive mechanisms should be improved to guide investment,thereby alleviating the short-term economic impacts of carbon-neutrality constraints at relatively low cost.At the same time,continuous efforts should be made to advance technological progress in emission reduction and carbon sequestration,strengthen technology reserves,and build a multi-pathway synergistic system,so as to promote the green transition and high-quality development in a manner that minimizes total social costs,thereby ensuring the achievement of China’s “dual-carbon” goals.

Key words: carbon neutrality, forest carbon sink, forestry policy, dynamic general equilibrium model