2001—2020年三北防护林工程实施取得了显著成效,对其实施效果进行评估有利于精准预测下一阶段目标任务重点。运用动态权重模型及正态云模型,构建多层级指标评价体系综合评价2001—2020年三北防护林工程实施效果,选用灰色系统预测模型预测2024—2028年各一级指标效应响应指数。结果表明:1)工程目标、工程效益及工程可持续效益指数响应均呈稳步上升趋势,其中,增幅最大的是工程效益指数,增幅最小的是工程目标指数。2)2001—2020年三北防护林工程实施整体综合评价结果为良好,表明该阶段工程综合效益显著。3)2024—2028年三北防护林工程综合评价预测结果表明,工程目标指数及工程可持续指数均呈稳步上升趋势。将评价研究聚焦于工程目标、工程效益及工程可持续三个维度,丰富和完善了三北防护林工程2001—2020年实施效果评价指标体系。

The implementation of the Three-North(i.e.,Northeast China,North China and Northwest China)Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 has yielded significant results,and the dynamic evaluation of the implementation effect of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program at this stage facilitates precise measurement of future objectives and tasks focus.By applying dynamic weighting and normal cloud models,we constructed a multi-level indicator system to comprehensively evaluate the implementation effect of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020,and selected the grey system prediction model to accurately predict the first-level effect response index from 2024 to 2028.The results show that:1)The response indexes for project objectives,benefits,and sustainability show a steady upward trend,of which the largest increase is the index of project benefits,and the smallest increase is the index of project objectives.2)The overall evaluation of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 is positive,which indicates that the project's comprehensive benefits are significant in this period.3)The comprehensive evaluation and prediction results for the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2024 to 2028 show a consistent upward trend in both project goal and sustainability indices.Focusing the evaluation on project objectives,benefits,and sustainability,the index system for evaluating the implementation effect of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 has been enhanced and refined.