欢迎访问林草资源研究
Scientific Research

Dynamic Change and Prediction of Land Use in Jinjiang City Based on LCM Model

  • Yanqin SU ,
  • Riwen LAI ,
  • Wenwei LUO ,
  • Lili YU ,
  • Chimin LAI ,
  • Honglin LI
Expand
  • College of Forestry,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China

Received date: 2017-10-12

  Revised date: 2017-11-28

  Online published: 2020-09-27

Abstract

The aim of the study was to explore the evolution law of land use and the future land use status in Jinjiang City.This paper analyzed the dynamic change of land use type with three remote sensing images in 1990,2000 and 2010.Based on the remote sensing interpretation data and the land use dynamic change influencing factors,this paper constructed the land use forecasting model(LCM).This model was used to forecast the quantity and distribution of land use in 2020 and 2030 in Jinjiang.The results are as follows:(1) The Kappa indices of LCM model in 2010 were all more than 80%.(2) The prediction results show that construction land will increase in the central and north parts of Jinjiang,and the decrease of cultivated land will be distributed in the central urban area of Jinjiang future zoning.The bare land will decrease in the LCM model prediction,mainly in the coastal area.While the forest land will decrease in 2020,but the growth trend will appear after 2020,and mainly in the coastal towns.This paper indicated that the accuracy and credibility of LCM prediction were high and provided a reasonable basis for the future planning of land use in Jinjiang City and the direction of regional economic development.

Cite this article

Yanqin SU , Riwen LAI , Wenwei LUO , Lili YU , Chimin LAI , Honglin LI . Dynamic Change and Prediction of Land Use in Jinjiang City Based on LCM Model[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2018 , 0(1) : 96 -102 . DOI: 10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2018.01.014

References

[1] 闫化冰, 段红梅, 薛建春. 包头市土地利用动态变化研究[J]. 中国市场, 2009(13):61-63.
[2] 赵冬玲, 杜萌, 杨建宇, 等. 基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用演化模拟预测研究[J]. 农业机械学报, 2016(3):278-285.
[3] 刘淑燕, 余新晓, 李庆云, 等. 基于CA-Markov模型的黄土丘陵区土地利用变化[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010(11):297-303.
[4] 魏辽生. 基于IDRISI-LCM模型的土地利用变化与预测研究[D]. 大连:辽宁师范大学, 2015.
[5] 徐广才, 康慕谊, 李亚飞. 基于MLP-ANN与Markov Chain的土地利用变化预测方法——以锡林郭勒盟为例[J]. 生态环境学报, 2010(10):2386-2392.
[6] Labs C. Species Distribution Modeling in IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler[EB/OL]. [2017-12-01]. http://clarklabs.org.
[7] 仕玉治, 黄继文, 刘海娇, 等. 基于LCM模型的黄河三角洲土地利用变化预测[J]. 人民黄河, 2014(2):68-70.
[8] 李刚, 陈莹. 我国东南沿海高速城市化地区土地利用动态变化及趋势——以福建省晋江市为例[J]. 经济地理, 2006(3):409-411.
[9] 杨俊, 单灵芝, 席建超, 等. 南四湖湿地土地利用格局演变与生态效应[J]. 资源科学, 2014(4):856-864.
[10] Arsanjani J J H M. Integration of Logistic Regression,Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Models to simulate urban expansion[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and. 2013,1(21):265-275.
[11] Islam M S A A. Land use change prediction in Dhaka City using GIS aided Markov Chain modelling[J]. Journal of Life and Earth Science, 2011,6(21):81-89.
[12] 曹瑞娜. 基于GIS和CLUE-S模型的山区土地利用情景模拟研究[D]. 泰安:山东农业大学, 2014.
Outlines

/