Forest and Grassland Resources Research >
Prediction of Potential Distribution and Climate Change of Rare Species Cephalotaxus oliveri
Received date: 2021-11-15
Revised date: 2021-12-10
Online published: 2022-03-31
Cephalotaxus oliveri is an II-class national protection of wild plant and a tertiary relic species in China. Understanding its distribution range and its response to climatic factors is helpful to protect the species under climate change. In this study,geographical distribution records from literature and specimen was used to analyze the potential geographical distribution of C.oliveri in China through MaxEnt model. Moreover,based on CMIP6 date from Digital Terrain of China,C. oliveri potential distribution under four climate change scenarios in the following 80 yearswas predicted. The results showed that:1) precipitation in the driest month,slope and annual precipitation were the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C.oliveri. 2)Under the current climate conditions,highly suitable habitat for C. oliveri accounted for 1.7% of the area of China,mainly concentrated in the southwest edge of the Sichuan Basin,Wuling Mountains - Shennongjia,Xuefeng Mountain,Nanling,Luoxiao Mountain,Dabie Mountain,mountains in Southern Anhui - Tianmu Mountain,Wuyi Mountain - mountains in Southern Zhejiang,Daiyun Mountain and Central Mountains in Taiwan. However,under current climatic conditions,the southwest population (located in Yunnan Province) was not in the range of highly suitable habitat,which may be related to the relatively few definite distribution points and microhabitat effects in the local.3)Overall,the response of C.oliveri distribution to future climate (warm and humid) would be insensitive. Under the four scenarios of climate change,the model predicted that the spatial distribution of highly suitable habitat of the species would not change significantly. The area of low,medium,highly suitable habitat and all degree of suitable habitat would generally increase. The most highly suitable habitat of the species would slightly change under future climate except the SSP245 scenario,which would decrease continually.
Zengli LIU , Lile HU . Prediction of Potential Distribution and Climate Change of Rare Species Cephalotaxus oliveri[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2022 , 0(1) : 35 -42 . DOI: 10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2022.01.005
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