Abstract:

This study conducts an analysis of carbon emissions and the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation across 30 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Xizang)in China from 1997 to 2021.1)Most provinces are still experiencing an increasing trend in carbon emissions,with only 8 provinces nearing or achieving the carbon peak goal by 2021.2)China has initially achieved preliminary success in carbon emission reduction,with technological advancements playing a significant role.Carbon intensity has shown a year-on-year decline,with 18 provinces reducing their carbon intensity by more than 65% compared to 2005,typically in economically advanced regions.3)There is a significant correlation between carbon emissions and GDP.In 2021,the five provinces with the lowest carbon intensity accounted for only 5.11% of national carbon emissions but contributed 16.25% to the national GDP,whereas the 5 provinces with the highest carbon intensity contributed 33.51% to national carbon emissions but only 6.98% to the national GDP.4)As for 2021,energy consumption in China is still dominated by coal and petroleum,accounting for 91% of energy consumption.The impact of the incremental energy consumption on GDP growth exhibits a lag effect;however,as the economic output efficiency per unit of energy consumption significantly improves,such lag effect is gradually diminishing.5)The annual carbon fixation ability of national forest vegetation has continuously increased.In 2021,the national forest carbon sink reached 451 million tons,absorbing the equivalent of 1.655 billion tons of CO₂,with an annual average increase rate of 4.02% from 2017 to 2021.However,it is significantly lower than the annual average growth rate of carbon emissions,which is at 10.7%.6)The carbon sequestration capacity of forests in each province has improved,yet for most provinces,forest carbon sequestration accounts for less than 10% of their annual emissions.Jiangxi,Guangxi,Jilin,and Hunan exceed 30%;Yunnan and Sichuan are notably efficient,with their forest carbon sequestration are 2.16 times and 1.13 times of their carbon emissions.7)In 2021,the carbon sequestration of forest vegetation accounted for 12.63% of the carbon emissions of that year in China,and the terrestrial ecosystems accounted for 23% of the annual emissions.Although the growth rate of carbon emissions continues to exceed that of the carbon absorption capacity of forest vegetation,terrestrial ecosystems,primarily forest ecosystems,remain crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in China.Protecting and enhancing the productivity of forest ecosystems is crucial for further increasing carbon sink capacity and achieving carbon neutrality goal after the carbon reduction potential approaches its limit.

Key words: provinces, carbon emissions, carbon sinks, carbon peaking, forest vegetation