云杉大小蠹在西藏的适生区分析
收稿日期: 2020-01-10
修回日期: 2020-04-27
网络出版日期: 2020-06-15
Analysis on the Potential Distribution Area of Dendroctonus micans in Tibet
Received date: 2020-01-10
Revised date: 2020-04-27
Online published: 2020-06-15
为防止全国林业危险性有害生物云杉大小蠹(Dendroctonus micans)在西藏进一步扩散,采用最大熵(Maxent)生态位模型,结合气候、降雨等环境因素,直观、定量地模拟云杉大小蠹在西藏的潜在适生区,并采用特性曲线(ROC)对模拟结果进行验证。模拟结果表明,云杉大小蠹潜在适生区约占西藏总面积的1/6,并主要集中在西藏东南部和中部,这一结论与其寄主植物在西藏的分布基本一致;ROC曲线验证结果表明,Maxent模型对云杉大小蠹在西藏的潜在适生区模拟精度高(AUC=0.97),结果可信。云杉大小蠹的适生区模拟为早期监测和预警提供理论依据,可防止其进一步扩散蔓延。
肖义发 , 王梦君 , 李昕宇 , 陈飞 , 王继山 , 张海武 , 次旦普尺 . 云杉大小蠹在西藏的适生区分析[J]. 林草资源研究, 2020 , 0(2) : 141 -145 . DOI: 10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2020.02.021
In order to prevent the further spread of Dendroctonus micans in Tibet,research was carried out to predict potential distribution of Dendroctonus micans in Tibet using the Maxent model as prediction model,and temperature and precipitation as environment variables,the prediction results are verified by the ROC curve.The results show that the potential distribution area of Dendroctonus micans is about 1/6 of the Tibet's total area,and distributed in southeastern and central Tibet,this result is basically consistent with the distribution of the host.The ROC curve test indicated that the prediction with Maxent model had a higher precision(AUC=0.97),and was credible.These provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control Dendroctonus micans and some effective measures must be taken to prevent its spread for the further.
Key words： Dendroctonus micans; distribution; model; environmental factor; Tibet
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