以我国北京、天津、上海、湖北、重庆、广东、深圳等7个碳交易试点省市为案例区,运用方向性距离函数求得各案例区工业行业碳边际减排成本,并采用云模型仿真方法,对试点省市未来10年的森林碳汇需求潜力做出科学预测,进而对如何提升试点省市未来10年的森林碳汇需求进行政策仿真研究。研究结果表明:我国7个试点省市工业行业的碳边际减排成本存在着很大的差异,企业超排处罚率、产业激励政策、自行技术减排补贴率和企业碳排放配额发放强度变化等4个政策因素对减排行业森林碳汇需求潜力存在不同影响效应。基于不同政策因素的组合影响计算与分析,最后就如何提升未来7个试点省市的森林碳汇需求总量提出了相关的政策建议。

The article takes 7 pilot cities and provinces in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Hubei,Chongqing,Guangdong,Shenzhen as the case area,and uses the directional distance function to obtain the carbon marginal abatement cost of the industrial sector in each case area,and adopts the cloud model.The simulation method will make a scientific prediction on the forest carbon sequestration demand potential of the pilot provinces and cities in the next 10 years,and then carry out policy simulation research on how to improve the forest carbon sequestration demand of the pilot provinces and cities in the next 10 years.The results show that there are great differences in the carbon marginal abatement costs of the industrial industries in the seven pilot provinces and cities in China,such as the enterprise's super-discharge penalty rate,industrial incentive policies,self-technology emission reduction subsidies,and the intensity of corporate carbon emission quotas.The four policy factors have different effects on the demand potential of forest carbon sequestration in the emission reduction industry.Based on the combined impact calculation and analysis of different policy factors,the article concludes with relevant policy recommendations on how to improve the total demand for forest carbon sequestrations in the next seven pilot provinces and cities.