森林虫害是威胁森林生态健康及造成森林经济损失的重要因素,研究其在气候变化下的分布变化、发展趋势是有重要意义的。以松墨天牛为研究对象,对其在气候变暖趋势下的适生区进行分布模拟与预测。以2006—2015年6—8月月平均温度为预测指标,通过松墨天牛适生概率模型,在1km×1km空间尺度上,模拟与预测了不同增温模式下我国松墨天牛适生区分布。结果表明:1)当前,我国松墨天牛主要分布于山东、河南、安徽、广西、贵州等地区,分布较少的地区是西藏、青海及四川;2)随着温度的增加,松墨天牛的适生分布逐渐北移,其在西藏、青海等原本分布较少地区的适生概率逐渐增加。基于GIS的松墨天牛空间分布预测,为我国在全球气候变暖的背景下预防松材线虫病提供科学依据,为我国病虫害预测预报提供了理论基础。

Forest pests are a major factor threatening the ecological health of forests and causing economic losses in forests.It is of great significance to study the changes of their distribution and their development trends given climate change.The paper takes monochamus alternatus as the research object,and conducts the distribution simulation of its suitable habitat area under the climate warming trend.Based on the average monthly temperature from June to August from 2006 to 2015 as the predictive index,the distribution of suitable habitats of monochamus alternatus in different temperature was simulated and predicted on the spatial scale of 1km×1km.The results show that:(1) At present,monochamus alternatus in China is mainly distributed in provinces like Shandong,Henan,Anhui,Guangxi and Guizhou,and provinces such as Tibet,Qinghai and Sichuan see less distributtion;(2)As the temperature increases,the suitable distribution of monochamus alternatus gradually moves to the north,and the probability of its suitable distribution in Tibet,Qinghai and other areas with less distribution gradually increases.The spatial distribution prediction of monochamus alternatus based on GIS provides a scientific basis for the prevention of bursaphelenchus xylophilus disease in the context of global warming,and provides a theoretical basis for the prediction of pests control in China.