根据新疆维吾尔自治区的气象资料及已知的胡杨、铃铛刺、黑果枸杞、甘草的物种分布情况,采用Arcgis与MaxEnt模型相结合的方式,对胡杨等4种植物在新疆生长的适生区进行预测。结果表明:胡杨、铃铛刺、黑果枸杞、甘草的适生区面积分别占新疆总面积的40.79%,38.54%,41.99%,30.55%。对胡杨分布预测贡献率最高的两个气象因子分别是平均相对湿度与平均昼夜温差;对铃铛刺与黑果枸杞分布预测贡献率最高的两个气象因子分别是等温性与最冷月最低温;对甘草分布预测贡献率最高的两个气象因子分别是等温性与年均昼夜温差。经ROC曲线验证,显示该预测结果准确。结合刀切法对各因子贡献率的分析结果,总结出4种植物共同适生的气象条件为:平均湿度60%以上,年均昼夜温差25.5℃以下或27.25~27.5℃,等温性介于36~36.5之间,最冷月最低温大于-20℃。

According to the meteorological data of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the known species distribution of Populuseuphratica, Halimodendronhalodendron, Lyciumruthenicum,and Glycyrrhizauralensis,the combination of Arcgis and MaxEnt model was used to carry out the growth of Populuseuphratica and other three plants predictionsin Xinjiang.The results showed that the suitablearea of Populuseuphratica, Halimodendronhalodendron, Lyciumruthenicum and Glycyrrhizauralensis accounted for 40.79%,38.54%,41.99% and 30.55% of the total area of Xinjiang,respectively.The two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to Populuseuphratica distribution are average relative humidity and average day and night temperature difference;the two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to the distribution of Halimodendronhalodendron and Lyciumruthenicum are the isothermal and the coldest month.The two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to Glycyrrhizauralensis distribution prediction are isothermal and annual average day and night temperature difference.The ROC curve is verified to show that the prediction result is accurate.Combined with the analysis results of the contribution rate of each factor by jackknife method,it is concluded that the meteorological conditions suitable for 4 plants are:average humidity above 60%,annual average day and night temperature difference below 25.5 °C or 27.25~27.5 °C,the isothermality is between 36 and 36.5,and the lowest temperature of the coldest month is greater than-20 °C.