植被潜在分布区的预测是植被-气候关系研究的起点,对植被的保护和恢复具有重要的指导意义。基于滇西北地区的气候数据及寒温山地硬叶常绿阔叶林的现状分布数据,应用Maxent模型,预测了滇西北寒温山地硬叶常绿阔叶林的潜在分布区,结果表明:1)模型训练数据(Training data)的AUC值为0.976,检验数据(Texting data)的AUC值为0.973,模型的预测精度达到优秀水平;2)最冷月最低温度(Bio6)、 最冷季度平均温度(Bio11)、最干月降水量(Bio14)和最湿季度平均温度(Bio8)等 4个气候因子为影响滇西北寒温山地硬叶常绿阔叶林潜在分布的主导因子,其中最冷月最低温度(Bio6)最为关键;3)滇西北寒温山地硬叶常绿阔叶林潜在分布区总面积9 233.92 km²,占滇西北地区总面积的13.40%;4)滇西北寒温山地硬叶常绿阔叶林潜在分布区海拔分布范围为2 452~4 127m,平均海拔3 034m。

Prediction of potential vegetation distribution has great significance on protection and restoration of vegetation as a starting point of studies refering to vegetation-climate relationship.On the basis of climate data and current distribution data in Northwest Yunnan,the study predict potential distribution areas of cold-temperate mountainous sclerophyllous evergreen broad-leaved forests by means of Maxent model.Results are as follows:(1) AUC value of training data and texting data are 0.976 and 0.973 respectively,demonstrating that accuracy of the maxent model is excellent.(2) Four climatic factors including Bio6,Bio11,Bio14 and Bio8 become the leading factors affecting the potential distribution of cold-temperate mountainous sclerophyllous evergreen broad-leaved forests in Northwest Yunnan,in which bio6 is the most critical.(3) With a total area of 9 233.92 km²,potential distribution of cold-temperate mountainous sclerophyllous evergreen broad-leaved forests occupy 13.40 percent of Northwest Yunnan.(4)Elevation range of potential distribution areas of cold-temperate mountainous sclerophyllous evergreen broad-leaved forests in Northwest Yunnan is 2 452~4 127m,with an average of 3 034m.