林业是生态文明建设中不可或缺的主体,对实现“双碳”目标具有重要作用。尽管我国林业已经取得了显著成就,但不同地区对于森林火灾风险的管理能力存在差异。降低森林火灾风险、提高管理效率,是林业管理中亟需解决的关键问题。基于森林保险火灾受损数据,采用损失分布法对我国31个省(区、市)(除港澳台)的森林火灾风险的管理效率进行评估,并将评估结果与林业常用的灾因分析法结果进行比较。研究表明,内蒙古、黑龙江、四川、云南4个省(区)的火灾风险较高,但其保险损失率却显著低于灾因损失率,表明这些地区的火灾风险管理能够有效抑制致火灾因子的影响,从而显著降低森林火灾风险带来的实际损失。构建高效的林业管理制度,建立与先进地区和重点林区的合作机制,加强各地的经验交流与合作,进一步提升全国森林火灾风险管理效率。

Forestry serves as an indispensable subject in the advancement of ecological civilization and plays a vital role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Despite the remarkable achievements in the nation’s forestry sector,there are notable regional disparities in forestry risk management capabilities.Reducing risks and enhancing management efficiency remain critical challenges that urgently require solutions in forestry administration.Based on forest insurance data regarding fire damage,the Loss Distribution Method was employed to evaluate the efficiency of forest fire risk management across 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities),excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan.Compare the evaluation results with those obtained from the disaster cause analysis method in the forestry field.The study revealed that fire risks are relatively high in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Sichuan,and Yunnan.However,the insurance loss rates in these regions are significantly lower than the disaster cause loss rates,indicating that the efficiency of fire risk management in these areas effectively mitigates the impact of disaster-causing factors,thereby substantially reducing the actual losses associated with forest fire risks.To further enhance the efficiency of forest fire risk management in China,it is imperative to establish a strength forestry management system,develop cooperative mechanisms with advanced regions and key forested areas,and strengthen interprovincial experience exchange and collaboration.