探讨气候变化背景下华北落叶松木材碳汇复合经营的最优轮伐期以及林地期望值影响因素,为服务“碳中和”战略的人工林多目标经营与决策提供理论依据。以华北地区4个省份的落叶松人工林为研究对象,利用第六次至第八次森林资源连续清查的108块固定样地调查数据,基于弗斯曼模型在3种气候情景下定量分析木材价格、碳汇价格和贴现率对最优轮伐期与林地期望值的影响。结果表明:1)当前气候条件下,华北落叶松兼顾木材碳汇收益复合经营的最优轮伐期为27 a,碳排放浓度增加会缩短最优轮伐期并降低林地期望值;2)木材价格变动不会改变最优轮伐期,碳汇价格的上涨可以延长最优轮伐期,每吨碳汇价格增长100元,最优轮伐期延长1 a;3)贴现率增加会导致最优轮伐期缩短和林地期望值下降。在当前全球气候稳定性发生改变的背景下,有必要建立包含气候因子的最优轮伐期模型,从而减少未来人工林碳汇经营决策中的不确定性。

An improved understanding of the factors affecting the optimal rotation period and the maximum land expected value of Larix principis-rupprechtii is essential under climate change scenarios and can help managers adopt adaptive forest management strategies in considering both carbon sequestration and timber production.In the current study,inventory data of 108 sample plots collected from the 6th to 8th National Forest Inventories were used to develop Faustmann models for larch plantations in northern China.The effects of timber price,carbon price,and discount rate on optimal rotation period and land expected value were then analyzed based on the resulting Faustmann model.The results showed that:1)the optimal rotation period was 27 years for larch plantations under the baseline scenario.Both the optimal rotation period and land expected value decreased with increasing carbon emission concentration;2)timber price fluctuations didn’t change the optimal rotation period.The increase in carbon price can prolong the optimal rotation period.Specifically,for every 100-yuan increase in carbon sink per ton,the optimal rotation period will be extended by one year;3)the optimal rotation period and land income decreased with increasing discount rate.In the context of global climate change,it is necessary to develop optimal rotation models that consider climate factors for plantations,thereby reducing the uncertainty in future decision-making of carbon sink management.