综合利用森林火灾致灾危险性、承灾体暴露度、承灾体脆弱性,构建森林火灾风险评估指标体系。致灾危险性选取可燃物、气象条件、野外火源、地形地势等方面的内容为评估指标,承灾体暴露度选取地上活生物量、房屋建筑数量、人口数量、GDP等方面的内容为评估指标,承灾体脆弱性选取易燃林地比例、易燃建筑面积比例、老幼人口数比例、经济活动脆弱性等方面的内容为评估指标。采用层次分析法,通过专家打分的方式,确定各评估指标的权重。将森林火灾风险评估精度细化到小班、30弧秒地理格网,乡镇级、县级等多空间尺度,以满足国家、省、市、县不同行政级别森林防火管理精度需求,同时也为不同地区、不同时期的森林火灾风险识别提出最佳解决方案。

The risk assessment index system of forest fire was constructed by comprehensively utilizing the hazard of forest fire,the exposure and vulnerability of disaster bodies.The hazard of disaster was based on the contents of combustibles,meteorological conditions,field fire sources,terrain and topography,the exposure of disaster bodies was based on the contents of above-ground living biomass,number of buildings,population,GDP,and the vulnerability of disaster bodies was based on the proportion of flammable forest land,proportion of combustible building area,proportion of the elderly and young population,vulnerability of economic activities.Using The Analytic Hierarchy Process and expert scoring,this paper determined the weights of each evaluation indicator.It refined the accuracy of forest fire risk assessment to multiple spatial scales such as small class,30 arc second geographic grid,township level,county level,etc.to meet the accuracy requirements of forest fire prevention management at different administrative levels of the country,province,city,and county.At the same time,this paper proposed the best solution for forest fire risk identification in different regions and periods.