在现实的经济和科技水平下,实现碳中和就必须首先实现碳达峰。研究世界主要碳排放国家的碳达峰基础和碳汇能力对于我国实现碳达峰和碳中和具有重要借鉴意义。选取了世界224个国家和地区经济总量排名靠前的24个国家,根据其1960—2018年间的CO₂排放量、GDP总量、能源消耗、森林碳汇能力等数据进行分析,认为经济大国在碳达峰之前,CO₂排放量均与GDP、人均GDP呈正相关。进一步分析表明:在人均GDP达到2.0万~3.5万美元、低碳能源占比达到35%以上时,有实现碳达峰且碳排放出现下降的可能;天然气能源占比50%以上,或者煤炭和石油供应占比不高于55%,人均GDP达到3.5万~4.5万美元时,也有实现碳达峰且碳排放出现下降的可能。可见,能源供应结构是实现碳达峰的第一决定性因素,即低碳能源占比越高,碳达峰越容易实现;人均GDP是实现碳达峰的重要条件,只有经济实力雄厚的国家才有提高减排技术的能力。目前,研究所涉及的各国森林碳汇能力均在不断提高,但占其本国的年碳排放量比例较低,大部分国家不足15%,一些国家的森林碳汇能力还在降低,实现碳中和仍需要相当长时间。因此,应特别重视森林生态系统的健康、稳定、高效、可持续经营。

At the level of realistic economy and technology,we must first achieve carbon peaking in order to achieve carbon neutrality.Studying the carbon peak foundation and carbon sink capacity of the major carbon emitting countries in the world has important reference significance for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This study sorted out the top 24 countries in economic aggregate among the world's 224 countries and regions.Based on the data of CO₂ emissions,total GDP,energy consumption and reserves on forest carbon sink from 1960 to 2018,it found out total GDP and GDP per capita were positively correlated with CO₂ emissions before carbon peak.When GDP per capita reached $\$$20000 to $\$$35000,and low-carbon energy accounted for more than 35%,it would be possible to achieve carbon peak and reduce carbon emissions.In addition,when GDP per capita reached $\$$35000 to $\$$45000,and high-carbon energy (coal and oil) accounted for no more than 55%,it would also be possible to achieve carbon peak and reduce carbon emissions.Energy supply structure was the first determinant of carbon peak time.The results showed that if the proportion of low-carbon energy was higher,it was easier to achieve carbon peak.Nowadays,the forest carbon sink capacity of 24 countries was constantly improving.However,the reserves on forest carbon sink were less than 15% of the country's annual carbon emissions in most countries.It still takes a long time to achieve carbon neutrality.Therefore,special attention should be paid to the healthy,stable,efficient and sustainable management of forest ecosystems.