采用以模拟退火算法为原理的中国森林模拟与优化平台FSOS(Forest Simulation Optimization System),初步探讨了巴布亚新几内亚国家层面林地利用规划方案。方案一,继续维持现有方式经营天然林;方案二,选出部分宜林荒地经营人工林,并保护天然林,对其林地进行短期(25年)和长期(200年)利用和保护规划,并与种植棕榈油的方案做对比分析。结果表明:按方案一经营,该地区每年最多生产1 000万m³木材,且天然林将逐渐减少至所剩无几;按方案二经营,人工林木材产量明显大幅度提高,且大部分天然林也得到了有效保护。该经营策略可为巴布亚新几内亚天然林保护和人工林木材生产规划提供参考。

Based on the China's forest simulation and optimization platform FSOS(Forest Simulation Optimization System) using simulated annealing algorithm,this paper preliminarily discussed the forest land utilization planning at the national level in Papua New Guinea.Scenario 1:Continue to maintain the existing mode of natural forest management.Scenario 2:Select part of the wasteland suitable for forest to manage plantations and protect natural forest,and carry out short-term(25 years) and long-term(200 years) utilization and protection planning of its woodland,and compare it with the scheme of planting palm oil.The simulated analysis showed that if scenario 1 was adopted,maximum timber output would be 10 million m³ per year,and almost all of the natural forests would lose at the end.If scenario 2 was adopted,the timber output of plantations would significantly increase and most of the natural forests have been effectively protected,with the natural forests being effectively conserved.The result of simulated analysis provides a reference for planning natural forest protection and timber plantation establishment of PNG.