为方便地方政府计量森林碳储量家底,建立广东省市县一体化森林碳储量估测技术体系。利用2017年广东省国家森林资源第九次连续清查产出的森林样地调查数据,构建了以森林蓄积量、生物量和碳储量为目标变量,以林分断面积和林分平均高为解释变量的联立预估模型,各模型确定系数R²均在0.94以上,平均预估误差MPE小于3%,平均百分标准误差MPSE小于15%,各项评价指标表明,模型具有较高的实用性。同时,基于广东省2018年森林资源二类调查小班数据,以模型技术、数据耦合技术为支撑,把广东省全省森林储量落实到森林资源档案数据中的森林图斑,逐级汇总到村、镇、县、市、省,实现了国家框架体系下的省市县一体化。结果表明,建立的碳储量估测技术体系耦合方法科学可行,预估模型精度较高,可在省、市、县碳中和目标实施情况考核评价中推广应用。

The purpose of this study is to establish the integrated province-city-county forest carbon storage estimation technology system of Guangdong,and provide a method reference for local government to measure forest carbon storage.This study used forest sample plot survey data of the ninth national forest resources continuous inventory of Guangdong Province in 2017,established a simultaneous prediction model with forest volume,biomass and carbon storage as target variables,and stand basal area and stand average height as explanatory variables,each model's determination coefficient R² was above 0.94,MPE average forecast error was less than 3%.The average percentage standard error (MPSE)was less than 15%,and the evaluation indexes showed that the model had high practicability.Based on the sub-class data of 2018 second-class forest resources survey in Guangdong Province,supported by model technology and data coupling technology,the forest reserves of Guangdong Province were translated into forest map patterns in forest resources archive data,and then aggregated into villages,towns,counties,cities and provinces step by step,realizing provincial-city-county integration under the national framework system.The results showed that the system coupling method of carbon storage estimation technology established was scientific and feasible,and the prediction model had high accuracy,which could be popularized and applied in the assessment and evaluation of carbon neutralization goals of provinces,cities and counties.