为研究中国木材市场的时空格局与动态变化,基于1997—2020年中国各省域商品材产量统计数据,应用集中度指数、空间基尼指数、重心模型、全局莫兰指数和局域热点指数,结合ArcGIS及GeoDa分析软件进行研究。结果显示:1997—2020年中国木材市场集中度由43.62%上升到64.10%,空间基尼指数从0.044上升到0.129,空间分布不均衡程度上升;分布重心从山东向江苏、河南、湖北和湖南迁移;省域木材市场间存在显著的空间自相关性,全局莫兰指数从1997年的0.36降低到2020年的0.22;热点区域从黑龙江和吉林变化到云南、广东、广西、湖南和贵州。因此,中国木材市场在区域间分布差异扩大,集中度提高;空间分布重心和热点区从东北向西南迁移;中国木材市场分布呈现空间正相关性,集聚区域趋于稳定。

In order to study the spatiotemporal pattern and dynamic changes of China's timber market,based on the production data of China's provincial commercial timber from 1997 to 2020,this paper applied the concentration ratio,space Gini coefficient,gravity model,Global Moran's I and local Getis-Ord Gi,combined with ArcGIS and GeoDa analysis software to conduct the research. The results showed that from 1997 to 2020,the concentration ratio of China's timber market increased from 43.62% to 64.10%,and the spatial Gini coefficient increased from 0.044 to 0.129,indicating that the degree of spatial imbalance has increased;The distribution center of gravity has shifted from Shandong Province to Jiangsu,Henan,Hubei and Hunan Provinces;There was a significant spatial autocorrelation between provincial timber markets,with the global Moran's index decreasing from 0.36 in 1997 to 0.22 in 2020;The hot spots changed from Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces to Yunnan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hunan and Guizhou Provinces. So the regional distribution difference of China's timber market expanded and the degree of concentration increased;The center of gravity and hot spots of spatial distribution migrated from northeast to southwest;The distribution of China's timber market showed a positive spatial correlation,and the agglomeration area tended to be stable.