云南省森林资源预测及其碳汇潜力研究
收稿日期: 2017-05-14
修回日期: 2017-06-01
网络出版日期: 2020-09-24
基金资助
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“2020年后林业增汇减排的行动目标研究”(2013014)
Research on Prediction of Forest Resources and the Carbon Sequestration Potential in Yunnan Province
Received date: 2017-05-14
Revised date: 2017-06-01
Online published: 2020-09-24
基于2002年、2007年和2012年3期森林资源清查资料,采用马尔科夫模型和复利公式,分别对2012—2027年16年间云南省森林资源面积结构和蓄积量变化进行预测,并应用生物量经验(回归)模型估计法和植被含碳率,对云南省森林植被的生物量、碳储量和碳密度进行预估。结果表明:16年间云南省森林植被面积和蓄积量将呈现双增长趋势,面积和蓄积量年均增长率分别为0.50%和2.94%,森林植被碳储量和平均碳密度均呈持续增长趋势,分别由890.40Tg和41.89Mg/hm2提高到1265.34Tg和55.41Mg/hm2,年均增长率分别为2.81%和2.15%。随着幼、中龄林的发展成熟,以及抚育经营使森林质量提高,云南省森林碳汇潜力巨大。
杨英 , 黄国胜 , 王雪军 , 苏浩然 , 智长贵 . 云南省森林资源预测及其碳汇潜力研究[J]. 林草资源研究, 2017 , 0(4) : 44 -49 . DOI: 10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2017.04.008
The changes of the structure and volume of forest resources were predicted in Yunnan Province by using the markov chain model and compound interest formula from 2012 to 2027,based on forest resources inventory data in 2002,2007 and 2012.The biomass,carbon storage and carbon density of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province were estimated by applying the biomass regression model and the carbon content of vegetation.The results shows that in the next sixteen years,the area and volume of forest resources in Yunnan Province will show a double growth trend.The annual average growth rate of area and volume are 0.5% and 2.94%.The carbon storage and the average carbon density of forest vegetation will increase continuously.The carbon storage will increase from 890.40Tg to 1265.34Tg,with an annual average growth rate of 2.81%.The carbon density will increase from 41.89 Mg/hm2 to 55.41 Mg/hm2,with an annual average growth rate of 2.15%.With the maturity of the young and middle-aged forests,and improvement of forest quality because of forest tending,the forest vegetation has great potential to stock carbon in Yunnan Province.
Key words： forest resources; carbon storage; carbon density; Yunnan Province
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