篦子三尖杉(Cephalotaxus oliveri)是第三纪孑遗植物,国家二级重点保护植物。在全球气候变化背景下,了解篦子三尖杉分布范围及其对气候变化的响应有助于该物种的保护。利用文献和标本库分布记录数据,通过MaxEnt模型分析篦子三尖杉在我国的地理分布,并基于国家气候中心提供的CMIP6气候数据预测4种气候变化情景下篦子三尖杉未来80年的分布范围。结果表明:1)最干燥月份降水量、坡度和年降水量是影响篦子三尖杉分布的主要气候因子;2)篦子三尖杉高适宜生境(适宜生境以下简称适生区)面积占我国国土面积的1.7%,主要集中在四川盆地西南边缘山地、武陵山系—神农架、雪峰山、南岭、罗霄山、大别山、皖南山地—天目山、武夷山—浙南山地、戴云山和台湾中央山脉;但篦子三尖杉西南部种群(位于云南省)不处于模型预测的高适生范围内,这可能与当地明确位置的点位相对较少和微生境有关;3)总体上来看,篦子三尖杉的分布格局对未来气候暖湿化的响应不太敏感,在未来4种气候变化情景下,篦子三尖杉高适生区的空间分布没有显著变化,而篦子三尖杉低、中、高3个等级的适生区面积和适生区总面积普遍扩大,对于极高适生区面积,除了在SSP245的情景下极高适生区面积将持续下降外,其余情景极高适生区面积变化较小。

Cephalotaxus oliveri is an II-class national protection of wild plant and a tertiary relic species in China. Understanding its distribution range and its response to climatic factors is helpful to protect the species under climate change. In this study,geographical distribution records from literature and specimen was used to analyze the potential geographical distribution of C.oliveri in China through MaxEnt model. Moreover,based on CMIP6 date from Digital Terrain of China,C. oliveri potential distribution under four climate change scenarios in the following 80 yearswas predicted. The results showed that:1) precipitation in the driest month,slope and annual precipitation were the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C.oliveri. 2)Under the current climate conditions,highly suitable habitat for C. oliveri accounted for 1.7% of the area of China,mainly concentrated in the southwest edge of the Sichuan Basin,Wuling Mountains - Shennongjia,Xuefeng Mountain,Nanling,Luoxiao Mountain,Dabie Mountain,mountains in Southern Anhui - Tianmu Mountain,Wuyi Mountain - mountains in Southern Zhejiang,Daiyun Mountain and Central Mountains in Taiwan. However,under current climatic conditions,the southwest population (located in Yunnan Province) was not in the range of highly suitable habitat,which may be related to the relatively few definite distribution points and microhabitat effects in the local.3)Overall,the response of C.oliveri distribution to future climate (warm and humid) would be insensitive. Under the four scenarios of climate change,the model predicted that the spatial distribution of highly suitable habitat of the species would not change significantly. The area of low,medium,highly suitable habitat and all degree of suitable habitat would generally increase. The most highly suitable habitat of the species would slightly change under future climate except the SSP245 scenario,which would decrease continually.