利用2006—2015年河南林业统计资料中主要木本粮油树种数据,通过灰色理论建立预测模型,对2016—2020年河南主要木本粮油树种的产出潜力进行预测,预计到2020年发展面积将达798 917.24hm²,产量721 575.24t,产值1 547 786.96万元,并利用食物当量的概念计算出2020年河南省木本粮油发展可替代的耕地面积为12 549.81hm²。针对制约河南木本粮油产业发展的主要原因,提出加强良种繁育推广优良品种,建立木本粮油生产基地,搞好加工利用和流通,完善多元投入机制,加大金融扶持力度,提高科技支撑能力,加快河南木本粮油产业发展。

The development potential of the main woody grain and oil tree species in Henan province from 2016-2020 was predicted based on the primary data of the Henan forestry statistical imformation and the forecasting model established with the grey theory.By 2020,it is expected that the development will reach the area of 798 917.24hm²,the production of 721 575.24t,and the output value of 15 477.87milion.Besides,the alternative cultivated area of Henan province in 2020 was calculated as 12 549.81hm² by using the concept of food equivalent.To address the main causes that restrict the development of woody grain and oil industry in Henan province,it proposed to strengthen the elite breeding and promote fine varieties,establish the production base for woody grain and oil,do a good job in the processing utilization and circulation,perfect diversified investment mechanisms,increase financial supports and improve technical supporting abilities so as to speed up the development of woody grain and oil industry in Henan province.