碳排放是经济发展初级阶段的必然产物,尤其是发展中国家生存发展的权利。中国碳排放长期维持在较低水平,2005年首次超过美国成为世界第一大国,但2016年人均碳排放仍仅为美国的46.28%。2030年中国CO₂排放总量将可能达到170~190亿t/a。实现2060年碳中和目标,需要改变能源结构,改进减排技术,使能源结构更加合理,煤改气是当前减排最主要的手段之一;到2060年,中国森林植被年固碳能力将达到或超过7.591 4亿t,年吸收CO₂能力将达到27.835亿t,以此目标控制碳排放,必须在2017年碳强度基础上降低95.39%,达到640t CO₂/亿元。中国陆生植被(森林、草原)的年固碳能力将达到13.803亿t,年吸收CO₂能力将达到50.693亿t,以此控制碳排放,中国的碳强度要在2017的基础上降低91.70%,达到1 152t CO₂/亿元。由此表明,中国碳强度在难以达到零排放的条件下,保障和提高森林植被固碳能力对实现碳中和目标具有关键的作用。

Carbon emission is an inevitable outcome of the initial stage of economic development,especially the right of developing countries existence and development.The carbon emissions of China have been maintained at a low level for a long time and became the top of the world in 2005.However,per capita carbon emission was still only 46.28% of the United States in 2016.China's total CO₂ emissions are expected to reach 17~19Gt per y by 2030.To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060,it's necessary to change the energy structure, improve emission reduction technology and make the energy structure more reasonable.Therefore,replacing coal with gas is one of the most effective ways of emission reduction currently.By 2060,the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation will reach or exceed 759.14Mt per y and the CO₂ absorption capacity will reach 2.783 5Gt per y.According to that,China's carbon intensity in 2060 must reduce 95.39% on the basis in 2017 and reach 640t per 100 million yuan.The carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial vegetation (forest,grassland) will reach or exceed 1.380 3Gt per y and the CO₂ absorption capacity will reach 5.069 3Gt per y.According to that,China's carbon intensity in 2060 must reduce 91.07% on the basis in 2017 and reach 1 152t per 100 million yuan.As a consequence,under the condition that China's carbon intensity is difficult to achieve zero emissions,forest vegetation plays a key role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality to ensure and improve the carbon sequestration capacity.