基于实地调研得到的1 638份有效问卷调查资料,运用二元Logistic模型分析影响两轮退耕农户复耕意愿的影响因素。结果表明:1)影响两轮退耕农户复耕意愿的因素存在差异,前一轮退耕农户的复耕意愿受退耕地情况的影响较大,如退耕林种、退耕林地保存率和退耕地收益;新一轮退耕农户复耕意愿受退耕补助标准显著影响,同时退耕农户中不同群体的复耕意愿存在显著差异,如少数民族和低保户复耕意愿较强。2)不同地形类型和地区的退耕农户复耕意愿不同,前一轮丘陵和山区的退耕农户复耕意愿较强,新一轮西北地区的退耕农户复耕意愿较强。为有效巩固退耕还林成果,防止复耕现象,应制定更加灵活化的扶持政策,提高退耕林分质量,挖掘退耕林地经济潜力,以及加强宣传,以提高工程的社会评价和农户认可度。

In this paper,the logistic regression model was applied to analyze the influencing factors affecting the willingness of fallow farmers to resume farming based on 1 638 valid questionnaires collected from the field research.The results showed that the factors affecting the willingness of farmers to return to farming in the two rounds were different;the willingness of farmers to return to farming in the previous round was influenced by the condition of the fallow land,such as the fallow forest species,the preservation rate of fallow forest land and the income of fallow land and the willingness of farmers to return to farming in the new round was significantly influenced by the fallow subsidy standard.There were significant differences in the willingness of different groups of fallow farmers to return to farming,such as the willingness of ethnic groups and low-income households to return to farming.The willingness of farmers to return to farming is different in different terrains and regions.For example,farmers in hilly and mountainous areas in the previous round are more willing to return to farming,while farmers in the northwest of the new round are more willing to return to farming.In order to effectively consolidate the results of fallow forests and prevent the phenomenon of replanting,more flexible support policies should be formulated,the quality of fallow forests should be improved and the economic potential of fallow forests should be explored.It also found that the social evaluation and farmers' recognition of the project should be improved by strengthening publicity.