林分植被覆盖在很大程度上能够反映林分生态系统的健康与否,其时空变化是林分生态系统发展方向的判断依据。对玉溪市2010—2019年林分植被覆盖的时空格局变化进行了分析,并利用单因素和多元回归分析方法分别建立回归模型探索了林分植被覆盖改善与退化的驱动因素。结果表明:林分植被覆盖整体呈向好趋势,各驱动因素与斜率均不是简单线性关系;道路和居民区与林分植被覆盖改善速度呈负相关、与退化速度呈正相关;DEM、坡度、大型水体、公益林管护与林分植被覆盖改善速度呈正相关、与退化速度呈负相关;坡向与林分植被覆盖改善速度呈正相关,地形起伏度与林分植被覆盖退化速度呈负相关。林分植被覆盖改善与退化的驱动力不尽相同,影响机制也存在差异,这为更好制定生态保护相关政策提供了有力的科学依据。

Forest covers can reflect the health of the forest ecosystem and space-time change is the basis for estimating the direction of the forest ecosystem development.This study attempts to analyze the change of time and space pattern of forest vegetational cover in Yuxi,Southwest China's Yunnan Province,from 2010 to 2019,and establish the regression model by single-factor and multi-regression analysis methods,respectively,to explore the drivers for the improvement and degradation of vegetational covers.The results show that the forest vegetational cover show a good trend and the factors and slope are not simple linear relationship.The study finds that the improvement rate of road and residential areas and forest vegetational cover are negatively related and positively related to the rate of degradation.Moreover,DEM,slope,large water body,public welfare forest management and forest cover improvement rate are positively correlated with the degradation rate and the slope direction is positively correlated with the improvement rate of stand vegetational covers,and the topographic fluctuation degree is negatively correlated with the degradation rate of stand vegetation cover.The driving forces for the improvement and degradation of forest vegetational covers are not the same and the influence mechanism is also different,which provides a scientific basis for better formulaing ecological protection policies.