以藏东南波密岗乡自然保护区内华山松种群为研究对象,基于野外实地调查数据,依据空间代替时间理论、将种群动态变化情况进行量化。编制静态生命表、绘制存活曲线和进行生存分析来研究种群的结构特征和生存现状,通过时间序列分析来探索种群未来的发展趋势。结果表明:1)岗乡华山松种群结构属于增长型,但增长的幅度并不大,种群在发展过程中具有一定的波动性,幼苗幼树的数量极其丰富,但在向小树发展的过程中受到阻碍,个体大量死亡,更新能力受阻,种群存在衰退风险。2)岗乡华山松种群的存活曲线属于Deevey-Ⅲ型,早期死亡率极高,到一定阶段死亡率下降,发展平稳;种群的死亡率和消失率均在第 Ⅱ 龄级出现高峰,在 Ⅷ—Ⅸ 龄级较稳定。3)随着龄级的增加,岗乡华山松种群的生存率在下降,而累积死亡率趋于上升,分别在第 Ⅵ 龄级后达到最小值(0)和最大值(1);危险率在第Ⅱ龄级达到最高(0.394),死亡密度在第 Ⅲ—Ⅹ龄级降至最低(0),整个龄级阶段,生存率均低于危险率,说明该种群存在衰退的风险。4)对岗乡华山松种群的时间序列分析表明,在经历未来 Ⅱ、Ⅳ、Ⅵ 和 Ⅷ 龄级时间后,中、大树阶段的个体数量有上升的趋势。研究认为,岗乡华山松种群具有前期锐减、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点,建议采取就地保护的措施加强对岗乡华山松种群的保护,使其可持续发展。

Taking Pinus armandii population in Bomi Gang Township Nature Reserve of Southeast Tibet as the research object,this paper quantifies dynamic changes of population according to the theory of space in replacement of time,based on field survey data.It compiles the static life table,draws the survival curve and carries on the survival analysis to study the characteristics of population structure and its present survival situation. Through time series analysis,this article explores the trend of population development in the future.The results showed that:1) the population structure of P.armandii in Gangxiang belonged to the growth type,but the growth rate was not large.The population has a certain fluctuation in the process of development,and the number of seedlings and saplings is extremely large,but it was hindered in the process of developing into small trees,with a large number of individual death. The regeneration ability was hindered,and the population was at risk of decline.2) The survival curve of P.armandii population in Gangxiang belonged to Deevey-Ⅰ type,the early mortality rate was very high,and the mortality rate decreased to a certain stage and maintained stable development. The mortality and disappearance rate of the population appeared peak in the Ⅱ age class,and were stable in the Ⅷ—Ⅸ age class.3) With the increase of age class,the survival rate of P.armandii population in Gangxiang decreased,and the cumulative mortality increased,reaching the minimum value of 0 and the maximum value of 1 after the Ⅵ age class. The risk rate reached the highest (0.394) in the Ⅱ age class,and the death density decreased to the lowest (0) in the Ⅲ—Ⅹ age class. In the whole age class stage,the survival rate was lower than the risk rate,which indicates that the population is at risk of decline.4) The time series analysis of P.armandii population in Gangxiang showed that the number of individuals in middle and big tree stage would increase after Ⅱ、Ⅳ、Ⅵ and Ⅷ age classes.The results showed that the population of P.armandii in Gangxiang experienced a sharp decrease in the early stage,maintained stable in the middle stage and declined in the later stage.Therefore,local protection measures should be taken to strengthen the protection of P.armandii population in Gangxiang for its sustainable development.