以塔里木河流域78组胡杨树木为研究对象,进行胡杨树高、胸径、材积的生长模型研究。通过将建模和检验数据带入16个经验方程以及理论方程中,得到各模型参数值和决定系数(R²),依据平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、平均误差(ME)和平均预测误差百分比(MPSE),选出其中拟合效果最优的胡杨生长模型。最适宜胡杨树高的生长模型是柯列尔模型,其决定系数为0.771;最适宜胡杨胸径的生长模型也是柯列尔模型,其决定系数为0.969;最适宜胡杨材积的生长模型是逻辑斯蒂模型,其决定系数为0.966。通过设定的检验、评价标准,对多个拟合模型进行对比研究得到胡杨生长模型,以期为塔里木河流域胡杨的造林设计提供参考依据。

This paper takes 78 groups of Populus euphratica trees in the Tarim River Basin as the research object,aiming to study the growth model of P euphratica tree height,diameter at breast height and volume.The study introduces the modeling and testing data into 16 empirical equations and theoretical equations,and obtains each model parameter value and coefficient of determination (R ²).Based on the average absolute error (MAE),root mean square error (RMSE) and average error (ME ) and the average prediction error percentage (MPSE),the study selects the P euphratica growth model of the best fitting effect.It finds that the most suitable growth model for P euphratica tree height is the Collier model with a determination coefficient of 0.771,and the most suitable growth model for P euphratica at breast height is also the Kolier model with a determination coefficient of 0.969. The most suitable growth model for P euphratica volume is the logistic model and its coefficient of determination is 0.966.The growth model of P euphratica is obtained through comparative study of multiple fitting models through the set inspection and evaluation standards,in order to provide a reference for the afforestation design of P euphratica in the Tarim River Basin.