林木枯损率模型是树木生长与收获模拟系统中的一个重要组成部分。本文在充分研究国内外林木枯损率模型的基础上,根据北京市油松复位样地的数据,应用Logistic模型预测油松枯损率,模型自变量选择树木大小、竞争因子和林分密度等指标。研究结果显示:油松林木枯损率随径阶增加而呈U型分布,在5～15cm径阶时林木枯损率逐渐降低,之后枯损率又逐渐增加;枯损率随竞争激烈程度和林分密度的增加而增加。使用油松检验数据对建立的枯损率模型进行检验,发现该模型预测的油松枯损率与观测值之间没有显著差异。因此该模型可用于油松径阶和单木枯损率的预测。
Tree mortality model is an important part of tree growth and yield model system.This paper widely studies tree mortality model of overseas and domestic documents. Logistic model was used to model tree mortality of Pinus tabulaeformis based on the data from 105 remeasured plots in Beijing.Independent variables are tree size, competition and stand density index.The result shows tree mortality rate is gradually decreasing in 5-15cm and is gradually increasing with competition and stand density increasing. The test data for Pinus tabu Laeformis are used to test the mortality model. The result shows that the observed value of tree mortality rate has not significant difference with predicted value.So,this model can be used in practice.
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