Analysis and Forecast of Land Use Pattern Dynamic Evolution Based on RS and GIS in Harbin City

Abstract

Abstract: The remote sensing images of 1989 and 2007 were used as the main data source for Harbin city. With the support of RS and GIS technologies,the dynamic change of land use pattern was analyzed. Markov model was used for the quantitative forecast of the future land use of the study region.The result showed that: the area of forest land,water region and grassland increased. The area of crop land,residential land,unused land decreased. The crop land and forest land had a high reserving rate and the grassland and unused land had a high conversion rate. The land use tendency after 2007 is that forest land has increased,year by year and other types of land use has decreased. This change will last a long time until it reaches a relatively stable state,which means that the percentage of cropland,forest land,grassland,water area,residential land and unused land is 57.79%,25.24%,2.8%,3.99%,9.38% and 0.94% respectively.

Key words: GIS, Markov model, land use change

CLC Number:

TP79

BAI Xiaojuan, ZHAO Yusen. Analysis and Forecast of Land Use Pattern Dynamic Evolution Based on RS and GIS in Harbin City[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2010, 0(2): 102-106.

References

[1] 珊珊,夏丽华,龚建周,等.番禺区土地覆被及其景观格局时空特征分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2009,21(4):58-63.
[2] 摆万奇,赵士洞.土地利用变化驱动力系统分析[J].资源科学,2001,23(3):39-41.
[3] 陈文惠.福州土地利用变化及其驱动力多元综合分析[J].地球信息科学,2005,7(3):45-50.
[4] 张希彪.泾河中上游流域土地利用格局变化与驱动因子分析[J].水土保持学报,2005,19(6):137-140.
[5] 罗艳,杨树华,徐淑升,等.龙川江流域土地利用格局变化与趋势预测研究[J].云南地理环境研究,2007,16(9):29-33.
[6] 胡振琪,王金,杨成兵,等.基于RS 与GIS 的榆林地区土地动态变化分析[J].水体保持学报,2008,22(4):82-85.
[7] 潘洪义,门明新,许皞,等.基于RS与GIS的城市化进程中唐山市土地利用动态变化研究[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(6):1676-1678.
[8] 曾晖,胡振琪,谢宏全.基于多时相遥感的煤矿区LUCC信息图谱[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2007,26 (4):626-629.
[9] 李忠锋,王彦丽.定边县土地利用动态变化研究[J].干旱区地理,2004,27 (4):520-524.
[10] 李红梅,马友鑫,郭宗峰,等.基于RS和GIS的西双版纳土地覆被动态变化[J].山地学报,2007,25(3):280-289.
[11] 邬建国.景观生态学—格局、过程、尺度与等级[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000:163-165.
[12] 史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵,等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[13] 张叶,江晓波,邱枫.LUCC模型研究综述[J].资源开发与市场,2006,22(4):311-314.
[14] 陈江龙,曲福田,王启仿.经济发达区土地利用结构变化预测[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12 (4):317-321.
[15] 可华明,王金亮,韩文萍,等.香格里拉县土地利用/土地覆盖变化与趋势预测研究[J].云南地理环境研究,2006,18 (6):11-15.
[16] 徐岚,赵羿.利用马尔柯夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化[J].应用生态学报,1993,4(3):272-27.