Abstract: Based on some meteorological factors, prediction was made on the incidence rate of forest diseases,mice and pests by simple linear regression(SLR),multiple linear regressions(MLR),simple non-linear regression(SNLR)and BP neural network(BP).The results show that the determination coefficient(R²)and root mean square error(RMSE)of MLR are better than that of SLR,the R² and RMSE of BP are better than that of SNLR.According to the quality of models,BP model is the best of all,and SNLR is better than MLR and SLR.The conclusion is that the relations between meteorological factors and incidence rate of forest diseases,mice and pests are not linearity,non-linear model could effectively explain the incidence rate of forest diseases,mice and pests.

Key words: meteorological factor, forest diseases, mice and pests, prediction model