Abstract:

To address the significant deviation between the forestland quota used as a planning indicator calculated by a single method and the actual demand,this study used data from Guizhou Province from 2016 to 2024 and was in line with the overall requirements for forestry and grassland resource allocation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.Three categories of methods were used to estimate the forestland quota:the new construction land demand method,time-series methods (including the function model,moving average,exponential smoothing,and the gray model),and stepwise regression based on national economic parameters.A multi-model fusion calculation framework was constructed.The credibility of each calculation method was quantified through expert assessment,establishing a multi-dimensional weight allocation system that includes the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the Precedence Diagram Method (PDM),and the Equal Weighting Method (EWM).The results indicate that:1)There are significant discrepancies among the results calculated by individual methods,ranging from 29 300 to 45 000 hm².The multi-model fusion result based on AHP,which is 38 300 hm²,passed a rigorous consistency test and can serve as the planning indicator for the forestland quota for occupied forestland in Guizhou Province during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.2)The multi-fmodel fusion approach effectively mitigates the limitations inherent in single-method analyses by integrating their strengths and minimizing individual errors,thereby enhancing the precision and practical utility of the estimation.The calculated forestland quota for occupation can serve as a scientific foundation for formulating the forestland protection and utilization plan in Guizhou Province.Furthermore,it would provide a reference for forestland quota accounting in similar ecological regions,such as the southwestern plateau and mountainous areas.

Key words: forestland quota, Guizhou Province, multi-model integration, 15th Five-Year Plan, analytic hierarchy process