Abstract:

Exploring the new quality productive forces within the forestry sector is of paramount significance for achieving high-quality development.Drawing on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022,this study constructed an indicator system for new quality productive forces in forestry.It employs a comprehensive suite of methodologies including the entropy method,kernel density estimation,trend-surface analysis,temporal and spatial Markov chains,Dagum Gini coefficient,and obstacle degree model to analyze the dynamic evolutionary trend,state transition pathway,source of regional differences,and primary obstacle factors of new quality productive forces in forestry.The results indicated that:1)The level of new quality productive forces in China's forestry sector generally showed a mildly upward fluctuation,with a spatial differentiation pattern where the central region ranks highest,followed by the eastern,western,and northeastern regions.2)During the study period,the polarization pattern of these productive forces evolved from a "fault-line" to a "stepwise" pattern,and the primary source of spatial differentiation had transitioned from the east-west divide to the north-south divide.3)The state transition exhibited spatial characterized by 'high-high' and 'low-low' club convergence alongside asymmetrical spatial effects of "neighbor-induced degradation" and "neighbor-induced suppression". Furthermore,high-level regions exhibit a dual effect of "technological barriers" and "resource siphoning".4)The regional differences showed characteristics of a decrease in overall fluctuation and a slow reduction within regions,contrasted by a continuous expansion between regions.This is predominantly driven by a dynamic interprovincial competitive pattern of "cross-regional leapfrogging". 5)The development of new quality productive forces in forestry was primarily constrained by factors including technological investment,talent support,financial support,and resource utilization.It recommends to establish a north-south coordinated development corridor in the forestry sector:implement incentive strategies for high-level regions;break rigid development trajectories;as well as adopt region-specific and targeted policy measures to stimulate the input of key production factors.

Key words: new quality productive forces in forestry, dynamic evolution, state transition, regional differences, obstacle degree model