The Prediction of Suitable Areas of Four Species Including Populuseuphratica in Xinjiang

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2020.01.006

Abstract

Abstract:

According to the meteorological data of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the known species distribution of Populuseuphratica, Halimodendronhalodendron, Lyciumruthenicum,and Glycyrrhizauralensis,the combination of Arcgis and MaxEnt model was used to carry out the growth of Populuseuphratica and other three plants predictionsin Xinjiang.The results showed that the suitablearea of Populuseuphratica, Halimodendronhalodendron, Lyciumruthenicum and Glycyrrhizauralensis accounted for 40.79%,38.54%,41.99% and 30.55% of the total area of Xinjiang,respectively.The two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to Populuseuphratica distribution are average relative humidity and average day and night temperature difference;the two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to the distribution of Halimodendronhalodendron and Lyciumruthenicum are the isothermal and the coldest month.The two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to Glycyrrhizauralensis distribution prediction are isothermal and annual average day and night temperature difference.The ROC curve is verified to show that the prediction result is accurate.Combined with the analysis results of the contribution rate of each factor by jackknife method,it is concluded that the meteorological conditions suitable for 4 plants are:average humidity above 60%,annual average day and night temperature difference below 25.5 °C or 27.25~27.5 °C,the isothermality is between 36 and 36.5,and the lowest temperature of the coldest month is greater than-20 °C.

Key words: Populus euphratica, Halimodendron halodendron, Lycium ruthenicum, Glycyrrhiza uralensis, MaxEnt model, suitable area, forest ecology

CLC Number:

S718.5

Haobo SHI, Lu LI, Haiyan LU, Guili SUN, Guihua WANG. The Prediction of Suitable Areas of Four Species Including Populuseuphratica in Xinjiang[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2020, 0(1): 38-46.

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物种名	气候变量	置换重要值	累计贡献率
胡杨 (Populus euphratica)	平均相对湿度	0.1	26.8
胡杨 (Populus euphratica)	年均昼夜温差	42.6	21.5
铃铛刺 (Halimodendron halodendron)	等温性	50.5	37.2
铃铛刺 (Halimodendron halodendron)	最冷月最低温	25.3	34.2
黑果枸杞 (Lycium ruthenicum)	等温性	22.5	37.1
黑果枸杞 (Lycium ruthenicum)	最冷月最低温	26.5	21.9
甘草 (Glycyrrhiza uralensis)	等温性	2.1	43.2
甘草 (Glycyrrhiza uralensis)	年均昼夜温差	31.3	18.8