FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT ›› 2019, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 116-122.doi: 10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2019.01.018
• Scientific Research • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2018-12-25
Revised:
2019-01-11
Online:
2019-02-28
Published:
2020-09-25
CLC Number:
CHEN Dai. Prediction of Forest Fire Occurrence in Daxing’an Mountains Based on Logistic Regression Model[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2019, 0(1): 116-122.
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URL: http://www.lyzygl.com.cn/EN/10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2019.01.018
Tab.1
Independent variables in forest fire model development for Daxing'an Mountain
变量类型 | 变量说明 | 变量名 | 分辨率/尺度 | 数据来源 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
气象(防火期) | 日平均风速 | WIN_avg | 0.1m/s | 中国气象数据共享网络[ | ||
日累计降水量 | Pre | 0.1mm | ||||
日最高气温 | Tmax | 0.1℃ | ||||
日平均相对湿度 | RH_avg | % | ||||
地形 | 高程 | Elev | 1m | 地理空间数据云[ | ||
坡度 | Slope | 1° | ||||
植被 | 植被覆盖度 | FVC | % | 中国科学院计算机网络信息中心 国际科学技术数据镜像网站[ | ||
基础设施 | 到铁路的距离 | Dis_railway | 1m | |||
到公路的距离 | Dis_road | 1m | 国家测绘和地质信息管理局[ | |||
到居民点的距离 | Dis_residential | 1m | ||||
社会经济因素 | 人均GDP | CGDP | 元/km | 地球系统科学的数据 共享基础设施[ | ||
人口密度 | POP | 人/km |
Tab.2
Variable selection of Logistic regression models with different ratio of fire and non-fire points
变量 | 1∶1 | 1∶2 | 相关性 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pmax | Pmin | 显著的样本数 | Pmax | Pmin | 显著的样本数 | ||||||
坡向 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | — | ||||
到公路距离 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | + | ||||
到铁路距离 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | + | ||||
到居民区距离 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | + | ||||
人口密度 | 0.0027 | 0.0002 | 5 | 0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | + | ||||
GDP | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | + | ||||
植被覆盖度 | 0.023 | 0.0002 | 5 | 0.0267 | 0.0008 | 3 | + | ||||
日平均风速 | 0.0036 | <0.0001 | 5 | 0.0469 | 0.0006 | 4 | - | ||||
日累计降水 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | - | ||||
日最高气温 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | + | ||||
日相对湿度 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 5 | - |
Tab.5
The parameters of Logistic regression model
参数 | 估计系数 | 标准误差 | 卡方值 | 显著水平 |
---|---|---|---|---|
常量 | -0.2121 | 0.1376 | 2.3756 | 0.1232 |
坡向 | -0.1827 | 0.00673 | 737.7285 | <0.0001 |
到公路距离 | 0.0542 | 0.00369 | 215.6088 | <0.0001 |
到铁路距离 | 0.00971 | 0.00113 | 74.1665 | <0.0001 |
到居民区距离 | 0.0177 | 0.00151 | 136.6398 | <0.0001 |
人口密度 | 0.000521 | 0.000095 | 30.1968 | <0.0001 |
GDP | 0.00212 | 0.000222 | 91.3339 | <0.0001 |
植被覆盖度 | 0.4312 | 0.1516 | 8.0864 | 0.0045 |
日平均风速 | -0.0506 | 0.0188 | 7.2715 | 0.007 |
日累计降水 | -0.3598 | 0.0282 | 163.1947 | <0.0001 |
日最高气温 | 0.033 | 0.00296 | 124.1604 | <0.0001 |
日相对湿度 | -0.0314 | 0.00175 | 323.4969 | <0.0001 |
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